Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Canelas 2010 vs Varzim

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Bonilla J.
38'
Sub
Doukoure H. In: Ribeiro F.
Out: Doukoure H.
57' Event
Alex Tanque
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2023/2024 game between Canelas 2010 and Varzim finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Canelas 2010.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Canelas 2010
20%
Draws
60%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Varzim carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Varzim a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Canelas 2010 Clean Sheet 24%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Canelas 2010 Varzim
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 12
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.1 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 6, 2024 Liga 3
Canelas 2010 vs Varzim
2:0
Sep 16, 2023 Liga 3
Varzim vs Canelas 2010
1:1
Mar 5, 2023 Liga 3
Varzim vs Canelas 2010
1:1
Nov 26, 2022 Liga 3
Canelas 2010 vs Varzim
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Canelas 2010 Compare

Top Goalscorer Alex Tanque
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Varzim Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canelas 2010 10 / 100
Varzim 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Canelas 2010 Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Canelas 2010 scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Varzim let in goals in 78% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Varzim's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Varzim
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Canelas 2010

(Home)
04 May
Canelas 2010
0 : 2
AD Fafe
27 Apr
Anadia
1 : 0
Canelas 2010
14 Apr
Trofense
4 : 1
Canelas 2010
07 Apr
Canelas 2010
1 : 1
Sanjoanense
30 Mar
SC Vianense
0 : 0
Canelas 2010
Page 1 of 6

Varzim

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Felgueiras 18 13 2 3 35:11 41
2 Lusitania FC 18 8 7 3 32:15 31
3 Varzim 18 8 4 6 19:17 28
4 Braga B 18 8 3 7 26:22 27
5 Canelas 2010 18 7 4 7 21:28 25
6 AD Fafe 18 6 6 6 13:19 24
7 Trofense 18 6 5 7 18:20 20
8 Anadia 18 6 2 10 25:32 20
9 Sanjoanense 18 5 4 9 20:34 19
10 SC Vianense 18 3 3 12 14:25 12
Promotion - Liga 3 2023/2024 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 2023/2024 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Academica 18 9 5 4 27:17 32
2 Atletico CP 18 8 7 3 28:19 31
3 Alverca 18 9 4 5 27:19 31
4 Covilha 18 8 6 4 32:21 30
5 Sporting CP B 18 9 3 6 24:20 30
6 Caldas SC 18 8 5 5 31:26 29
7 Oliveira Hospital 18 5 5 8 15:21 20
8 Amora 18 4 6 8 21:24 18
9 Pero Pinheiro 18 3 4 11 16:37 13
10 1º Dezembro 18 2 5 11 11:28 11
Promotion - Liga 3 2023/2024 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 2023/2024 (Relegation Group)