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Capalaba FC vs St. George Willawong

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League John Frederick Park
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Thompson L.
66' Event
Anderson C.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

St. George Willawong in this Queensland Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored St. George Willawong.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Capalaba FC
6%
Draws
90%
St. George Willawong
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: St. George Willawong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Capalaba FC average 0.63 goals a game right now, well clear of St. George Willawong's 0.5.
  • St. George Willawong are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Queensland Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Capalaba FC Clean Sheet 10%
St. George Willawong Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capalaba FC St. George Willawong
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 5
Draws 4 5
Losses 20 19
Goals Scored 0.63 0.5
Goals Conceded 3.75 3.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.75 3.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Capalaba FC vs St. George Willawong
0:2
Mar 28, 2026 Queensland Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Capalaba FC
0:1
Aug 3, 2024 Queensland Premier League
Capalaba FC vs St. George Willawong
1:3
Apr 28, 2024 Queensland Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Capalaba FC
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capalaba FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

St. George Willawong Compare

Top Goalscorer Thompson L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capalaba FC 10 / 100
St. George Willawong 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capalaba FC St. George Willawong

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick STW Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. George Willawong has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Attacking prowess: Capalaba FC scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

St. George Willawong lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Capalaba FC VS St. George Willawong
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
3.75 Goals Conceded 3.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brisbane Strikers19153146:1548
2Broadbeach Utd.19144148:1846
3Ipswich1994632:2931
4Sunshine Coast Wanderers1986538:2630
5Robina City1884630:2028
6Caboolture1983835:3227
7Redlands1874735:3225
8Logan Lightning1973935:3724
9Holland Park Hawks1873829:3324
10St. George Willawong19411411:4113
11North Star19331318:4012
12Capalaba FC18221417:518