Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Estádio Nacional de Cabo Verde

Mauritania

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Cape Verde play Mauritania in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cape Verde averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Mauritania averaged 0.62 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Cape Verde won 2, Mauritania won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 19, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Cape Verde and 0.81 for Mauritania. This points to a Cape Verde double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Cape Verde

27%

Draws

29%

Mauritania

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Cape Verde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Cape Verde picked up more points recently compared to Mauritania.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 54%

Over 2.5 Goals 31%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31%

Cape Verde Clean Sheet 26%

Mauritania Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 49%

Second Half Goal 51%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cape Verde	Mauritania
Matches Played	30	26
Wins	13	6
Draws	7	10
Losses	10	10
Goals Scored	1.3	0.62
Goals Conceded	1.03	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Mauritania vs Cape Verde

Possession: 59% - 45% Cards: 4 - 1

1:0

Sep 10, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Cape Verde vs Mauritania

Possession: 40% - 57% Cards: 0 - 0

2:0

Jan 29, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Cape Verde vs Mauritania

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 2 - 2

1:0

Aug 3, 2019 African Nations Championship

Mauritania vs Cape Verde

Possession: 51% - 52% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Jul 27, 2019 African Nations Championship

Cape Verde vs Mauritania

Possession: 59% - 40% Cards: 2 - 1

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cape Verde Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendes R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Mauritania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35

Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cape Verde 45 / 100

Mauritania 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cape Verde Mauritania

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Cape Verde or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +24%

4.00

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cape Verde attacking → ← attacking Mauritania

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cape Verde scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Mauritania let in goals in 58% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Cape Verde went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Mauritania lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 28

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.38

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Comoros	6	3	3	0	7:4	12
2	Tunisia	6	3	1	2	7:6	10
3	Gambia	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
4	Madagascar	6	0	2	4	4:8	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Morocco	6	6	0	0	26:2	18
2	Gabon	6	3	1	2	7:9	10
3	Lesotho	6	1	1	4	2:13	4
4	Central Africa	6	1	0	5	3:14	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt	6	4	2	0	12:2	14
2	Botswana	6	2	2	2	4:7	8
3	Mauritania	6	2	1	3	3:6	7
4	Cape Verde	6	1	1	4	3:7	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nigeria	6	3	2	1	9:3	11
2	Benin	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Rwanda	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
4	Libya	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Algeria	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Equatorial Guinea	6	2	2	2	5:8	8
3	Togo	6	1	2	3	7:10	5
4	Liberia	6	1	1	4	4:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angola	6	4	2	0	7:2	14
2	Sudan	6	2	2	2	4:6	8
3	Niger	6	2	1	3	7:6	7
4	Ghana	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zambia	6	4	1	1	7:4	13
2	Ivory Coast	6	4	0	2	12:3	12
3	Sierra Leone	6	1	2	3	5:10	5
4	Chad	6	0	3	3	1:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	D.R. Congo	6	4	0	2	7:3	12
2	Tanzania	6	3	1	2	5:4	10
3	Guinea	6	3	0	3	9:5	9
4	Ethiopia	6	1	1	4	3:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mali	6	4	2	0	10:1	14
2	Mozambique	6	3	2	1	9:5	11
3	Guinea Bissau	6	1	2	3	4:6	5
4	Eswatini	6	0	2	4	2:13	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cameroon	6	4	2	0	8:2	14
2	Zimbabwe	6	2	3	1	6:4	9
3	Kenya	6	1	3	2	4:7	6
4	Namibia	6	0	2	4	2:7	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Africa	6	4	2	0	16:5	14
2	Uganda	6	4	1	1	8:5	13
3	Congo	6	1	1	4	4:12	4
4	South Sudan	6	1	0	5	6:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Senegal	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Burkina Faso	6	3	1	2	10:7	10
3	Burundi	6	1	1	4	4:11	4
4	Malawi	6	1	1	4	6:11	4