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Capital vs Aparecidense

Brazil Brazil

Serie D
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Vanilson
10' Event
Rodriguinho
71' Event
Cesinha

AI Match Summary

Capital in this Serie D matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Capital.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Capital
6%
Draws
4%
Aparecidense
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Capital

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Aparecidense haven't matched Capital's recent run of results.
  • Capital are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Capital Clean Sheet 68%
Aparecidense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capital Aparecidense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 10 10
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Serie D
Capital vs Aparecidense
4:0
Jun 20, 2026 Serie D
Aparecidense vs Capital
1:1
Jul 26, 2025 Serie D
Aparecidense vs Capital
2:1
Apr 19, 2025 Serie D
Capital vs Aparecidense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capital Compare

Top Goalscorer Vanilson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Aparecidense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capital 95 / 100
Aparecidense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capital Aparecidense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aparecidense let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Capital's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Capital has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Capital VS Aparecidense
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Independencia Futebol Clube1
Manauara3
Brasiliense0
Goiatuba EC1
Imperatriz2
Maracana1
Central SC1
Ferroviario3
Fluminense-PI0
America RN4
Sampaio Correa2
Trem3
Sao Raimundo RR2
Porto Velho3
Mixto1
Gama3
Monte Roraima3
Guapore4
Ceilandia2
Luverdense3
Parnahyba2
Aguia De Maraba3
AE Altos1
ABC2
Araguaina0
Nacional-AM (Manaus)1
Aparecidense1
Capital5
Tuna Luso2
Iguatu3
Maguary2
Piaui1
Portuguesa RJ4
Noroeste2
EC Sao Jose (PA)3
Santa Catarina2
Jacuipense1
Treze PB3
CRAC1
Tombense0
Serra Branca3
Juazeirense0
Rio Branco ES2
Uberlandia4
Sampaio Correa FE1
Portuguesa2
FC Cascavel3
Marcilio Dias4
Sao Luiz3
Blumenau2
Velo Clube2
Agua Santa1
Lagarto1
CSA3
Vitoria ES1
Betim FC2
America RJ1
Piracicaba3
Sao Joseense1
Cianorte2
ASA2
Sergipe1
Ivinhema4
Democrata GV2
1/16-finals
Manauara2
Goiatuba EC3
Imperatriz1
Ferroviario4
America RN6
Trem2
Porto Velho2
Gama3
Guapore0
Luverdense1
Aguia De Maraba2
ABC4
Nacional-AM (Manaus)2
Capital1
Iguatu5
Maguary3
Portuguesa RJ0
EC Sao Jose (PA)1
Treze PB3
CRAC2
Serra Branca2
Uberlandia3
Portuguesa3
Marcilio Dias1
Sao Luiz4
Velo Clube3
CSA4
Betim FC1
Piracicaba0
Cianorte4
ASA6
Ivinhema1
1/8-finals
Goiatuba EC3
Ferroviario0
America RN-
Gama-
Luverdense0
ABC0
Nacional-AM (Manaus)1
Iguatu1
EC Sao Jose (PA)2
Treze PB1
Uberlandia2
Portuguesa0
Sao Luiz-
CSA-
Cianorte0
ASA1
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-