Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Capital vs Samambaia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estadio Juscelino Kubitschek (JK), Paranoá
Capital Logo

Capital

2 - 2
FT
Samambaia Logo

Samambaia

Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Deysinho
47' Event
Tobinha
55' Event
Romario
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense game between Capital and Samambaia finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Capital
30%
Draws
39%
Samambaia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Capital carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Samambaia's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Brasiliense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Capital Clean Sheet 24%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capital Samambaia
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 20 11
Draws 11 6
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.66 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.84 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Brasiliense
Capital vs Samambaia
2:2
Jan 26, 2025 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Capital
1:0
Feb 14, 2024 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Capital
0:1
Jan 29, 2023 Brasiliense
Capital vs Samambaia
1:2
Mar 30, 2021 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Capital
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capital Compare

Top Goalscorer Deysinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tobinha
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Samambaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Romario
1 Goals
Assists Leader Victor Xavier
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capital 29 / 100
Samambaia 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capital Samambaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Capital scored in 79% of their last 38 outings.

Defensive concern: Samambaia conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Capital has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Capital VS Samambaia
1 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Capital

(Home)
12 Jul
Capital
1 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0
Capital
27 Jun
Capital
4 : 0
Aparecidense
20 Jun
Aparecidense
1 : 1
Capital
07 Jun
Capital
2 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
Page 1 of 8

Samambaia

(Away)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)