Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Capital vs Sobradinho

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estadio Juscelino Kubitschek (JK), Paranoá
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Matheuzinho
(Penalty)
43' Event
Deysinho
85' Event
Pedrinho

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense game between Capital and Sobradinho finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sobradinho.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Capital
30%
Draws
33%
Sobradinho
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Capital

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Capital come out ahead of Sobradinho on wins alone.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Capital taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Capital Clean Sheet 68%
Sobradinho Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capital Sobradinho
Matches Played 37 32
Wins 20 17
Draws 11 9
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.84 1.94
Goals Conceded 0.89 0.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Brasiliense
Capital vs Sobradinho
2:3
Feb 1, 2025 Brasiliense
Sobradinho vs Capital
1:1
Mar 18, 2020 Brasiliense
Capital vs Sobradinho
4:0
Jan 27, 2019 Brasiliense
Sobradinho vs Capital
3:0
Jan 25, 2014 Brasiliense
Capital vs Sobradinho
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capital Compare

Top Goalscorer Deysinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sobradinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedrinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Roniel
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capital 95 / 100
Sobradinho 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capital Sobradinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Capital Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Capital scored in 81% of their last 37 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Capital stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Sobradinho has conceded goals in 56% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Capital VS Sobradinho
1 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Capital

(Home)
12 Jul
Capital
1 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0
Capital
27 Jun
Capital
4 : 0
Aparecidense
20 Jun
Aparecidense
1 : 1
Capital
07 Jun
Capital
2 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
Page 1 of 8

Sobradinho

(Away)
21 Mar
Gama
1 : 0
Sobradinho
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)