Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Capivariano vs EC Sao Bernardo

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Capivariano in this Paulista A3 2023 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Capivariano
15%
Draws
42%
EC Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capivariano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Capivariano lately — more wins on the board than EC Sao Bernardo.
  • Win probability leans EC Sao Bernardo's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Capivariano have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Capivariano, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Capivariano here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Capivariano Clean Sheet 12%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capivariano EC Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 6 8
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.4
Goals Conceded 1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2023 Paulista A3
Capivariano vs EC Sao Bernardo
1:0
Apr 23, 2023 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Capivariano
0:3
Apr 16, 2023 Paulista A3
Capivariano vs EC Sao Bernardo
1:0
Mar 25, 2023 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Capivariano
5:0
Feb 25, 2023 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Capivariano
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capivariano 14 / 100
EC Sao Bernardo 67 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capivariano EC Sao Bernardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EC Sao Bernardo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Capivariano found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

EC Sao Bernardo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

EC Sao Bernardo's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Capivariano VS EC Sao Bernardo
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Capivariano

(Home)
21 Feb
Palmeiras
4 : 0
Capivariano
15 Feb
Botafogo SP
0 : 1
Capivariano
08 Feb
Capivariano
1 : 0
Mirassol
05 Feb
Corinthians
3 : 0
Capivariano
25 Jan
Capivariano
1 : 2
Primavera EC
Page 1 of 6

EC Sao Bernardo

(Away)
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Santo Andre
1 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3
Sao Jose EC
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Gremio Prudente 0
Sao Jose EC 1
EC Sao Bernardo 0
Capivariano 4
Final
Sao Jose EC 1
Capivariano 3