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Capivariano vs Ituano Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Baianinho
60' Event
Matheus Guilherme
68' Event
Neto Berola

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Capivariano advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Capivariano
15%
Draws
28%
Ituano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capivariano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Capivariano carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Capivariano a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Capivariano have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Capivariano, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Capivariano Clean Sheet 68%
Ituano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capivariano Ituano
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 15 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.17 1.03
Goals Conceded 1 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2025 Paulista A2
Capivariano vs Ituano
3:1
Mar 23, 2025 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Capivariano
0:1
Mar 8, 2025 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Capivariano
3:0
Feb 28, 2016 Paulista
Ituano vs Capivariano
2:1
Feb 15, 2015 Paulista
Ituano vs Capivariano
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capivariano Compare

Top Goalscorer Baianinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus Guilherme
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Ituano Compare

Top Goalscorer Neto Berola
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capivariano 46 / 100
Ituano 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capivariano Ituano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Capivariano's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Ituano conceded in 73% of 33 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Ituano lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Ituano
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Capivariano

(Home)
21 Feb
Palmeiras
4 : 0
Capivariano
15 Feb
Botafogo SP
0 : 1
Capivariano
08 Feb
Capivariano
1 : 0
Mirassol
05 Feb
Corinthians
3 : 0
Capivariano
25 Jan
Capivariano
1 : 2
Primavera EC
Page 1 of 6

Ituano

(Away)
29 Aug
Floresta EC
2 : 0
Ituano
22 Aug
Ituano
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
15 Aug
Volta Redonda
1 : 0
Ituano
08 Aug
Ituano
2 : 0
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
26 Jul
Brusque
1 : 0
Ituano
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Primavera EC 1
Santo Andre 0
Taubate 1
Sao Jose EC 0
Capivariano 3
Piracicaba 2
Ituano 4
Ferroviaria 3
Semi-finals
Primavera EC 4
Taubate 1
Capivariano 4
Ituano 1
Final
Primavera EC 1
Capivariano 2