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Capivariano vs Portuguesa Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Arena Capivari, Capivari
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Leonan Santos
45'
Hudson
46'
Sub
Mike In: Matheus Guilherme
Out: Mike

AI Match Summary

The Paulista game between Capivariano and Portuguesa finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Capivariano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Capivariano
15%
Draws
53%
Portuguesa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Portuguesa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Portuguesa come out ahead of Capivariano on wins alone.
  • Portuguesa are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Capivariano Clean Sheet 15%
Portuguesa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capivariano Portuguesa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.17 1.47
Goals Conceded 1 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2026 Paulista
Capivariano vs Portuguesa
1:0
Mar 4, 2017 Paulista A2
Capivariano vs Portuguesa
1:0
Mar 15, 2015 Paulista
Portuguesa vs Capivariano
1:2
Apr 24, 2013 Paulista A2
Capivariano vs Portuguesa
1:2
Apr 10, 2013 Paulista A2
Portuguesa vs Capivariano
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capivariano Compare

Top Goalscorer Baianinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Portuguesa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capivariano 15 / 100
Portuguesa 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capivariano Portuguesa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portuguesa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Capivariano's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Portuguesa has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Capivariano remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Portuguesa
0 Goals Scored 2
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Capivariano

(Home)
21 Feb
Palmeiras
4 : 0
Capivariano
15 Feb
Botafogo SP
0 : 1
Capivariano
08 Feb
Capivariano
1 : 0
Mirassol
05 Feb
Corinthians
3 : 0
Capivariano
25 Jan
Capivariano
1 : 2
Primavera EC
Page 1 of 6

Portuguesa

(Away)
25 Jul
Portuguesa
1 : 0
Uberlandia
18 Jul
Uberlandia
2 : 0
Portuguesa
11 Jul
Portuguesa
2 : 0
Marcilio Dias
04 Jul
Marcilio Dias
1 : 1
Portuguesa
27 Jun
Portuguesa
1 : 0
Sampaio Correa FE
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Novorizontino 8 5 1 2 16:10 16
2 Palmeiras 8 5 1 2 8:7 16
3 Bragantino 8 4 4 0 14:2 16
4 Portuguesa 8 5 0 3 11:7 15
5 Corinthians 8 4 2 2 10:6 14
6 Sao Paulo 8 4 1 3 11:12 13
7 Capivariano 8 4 1 3 7:10 13
8 Santos 8 3 3 2 12:7 12
9 Guarani 8 3 3 2 6:7 12
10 Botafogo SP 8 3 2 3 5:9 11
11 Mirassol 8 2 2 4 10:8 8
12 Primavera EC 8 2 2 4 14:15 8
13 Sao Bernardo 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
14 Noroeste 8 1 5 2 11:11 8
15 Velo Clube 8 1 2 5 2:13 5
16 Ponte Preta 8 0 1 7 3:14 1
Promotion - Paulista (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A2 2027 (Main)