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Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida

Venezuela Venezuela

Liga FUTVE Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado, Valencia
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Obando J. In: Tortolero E.
Out: Obando J.
48'
Acosta H.
49'
Rodriguez C.

AI Match Summary

The Liga FUTVE game between Carabobo and Estudiantes Merida finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carabobo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Carabobo
20%
Draws
33%
Estudiantes Merida
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Carabobo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Carabobo come out ahead of Estudiantes Merida on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Carabobo taking it.
  • Regular Liga FUTVE form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Carabobo here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Carabobo Clean Sheet 68%
Estudiantes Merida Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carabobo Estudiantes Merida
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 8 5
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.55 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida
1:0
May 17, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Estudiantes Merida vs Carabobo
0:2
May 13, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida
1:0
Mar 18, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Estudiantes Merida vs Carabobo
3:2
Jul 5, 2025 Liga FUTVE
Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carabobo Compare

Top Goalscorer Tortolero E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Estudiantes Merida Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carabobo 50 / 100
Estudiantes Merida 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carabobo Estudiantes Merida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carabobo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Estudiantes Merida conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Carabobo scored in 79% of their last 33 games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Carabobo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Carabobo VS Estudiantes Merida
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Carabobo

(Home)
15 Sept
Carabobo
1 : 0
Deportivo La Guaira
12 Sept
Academia Puerto Cabello
0 : 2
Carabobo
07 Sept
Carabobo
1 : 0
Estudiantes Merida
03 Sept
Rayo Zuliano
4 : 3
Carabobo
30 Aug
Carabobo
0 : 0
Zamora
Page 1 of 7

Estudiantes Merida

(Away)
16 Sept
Portuguesa
2 : 1
Estudiantes Merida
12 Sept
Estudiantes Merida
2 : 0
Dep. Tachira
07 Sept
Carabobo
1 : 0
Estudiantes Merida
03 Sept
Estudiantes Merida
1 : 1
Universidad Central
30 Aug
Deportivo La Guaira
1 : 2
Estudiantes Merida
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Academia Puerto Cabello 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
2 Portuguesa 6 2 2 2 7:8 8
3 Deportivo La Guaira 6 1 4 1 5:5 7
4 Universidad Central 6 1 3 2 8:8 6
Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Final)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carabobo 6 3 2 1 10:5 11
2 Dep. Tachira 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
3 Metropolitanos 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
4 Estudiantes Merida 6 1 0 5 2:8 3
Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Final)