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Stadium Background

Caramba vs FK Karosta

Latvia Latvia

Latvian Cup 2019
Caramba Logo

Caramba

Sun, Aug 4, 2019
1 - 2
11:00 AM
FK Karosta Logo

FK Karosta

Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Sub
Grablovskis R. In: Butovskis K.
Out: Grablovskis R.
44' Event
Varpins S.
57'
Sub
Dobelis N. In: Jefremovs V.
Out: Dobelis N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FK Karosta in this Latvian Cup 2019 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Caramba
15%
Draws
34%
FK Karosta
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caramba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • FK Karosta have won more games recently than Caramba.
  • Caramba are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • FK Karosta arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor FK Karosta, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Caramba Clean Sheet 10%
FK Karosta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caramba FK Karosta
Matches Played 16 20
Wins 11 14
Draws 0 0
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 3.56 2.85
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 2.56 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2019 Latvian Cup
Caramba vs FK Karosta
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caramba Compare

Top Goalscorer Savinovs M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.97
Avg xA / game 1.28

FK Karosta Compare

Top Goalscorer Varpins S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caramba 83 / 100
FK Karosta 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caramba FK Karosta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caramba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caramba's goal record stands at 100% scoring rate across 16 recent games.

FK Karosta has conceded goals in 79% of their last 19 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Caramba stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caramba VS FK Karosta
3.75 Goals Scored 3.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Caramba

(Home)
31 Jul
FK Auda Riga
3 : 1
Caramba
17 Jul
Caramba
11 : 0
Valka
04 Jul
Caramba
2 : 0
FK Alberts
04 Aug
Caramba
1 : 2
FK Karosta
13 Jul
Alberts JDFS
0 : 1
Caramba
Page 1 of 4

FK Karosta

(Away)
27 Nov
Dinamo Riga
2 : 1
FK Karosta
20 Nov
FK Karosta
4 : 2
Dinamo Riga
17 Jul
Albatroz
5 : 1
FK Karosta
04 Jul
Plavinas
0 : 1
FK Karosta
06 Sept
Grobina
3 : 0
FK Karosta
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Valmiera -
FK Smiltene -
TBD -
TBD -
Ghetto / Gvatar -
Nikers -
TBD -
TBD -
Livani -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Auda Riga -
Keiko Jekabpils -
TBD -
DSVK Traktors 1
Krimulda 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ventspils -
Super Nova -
TBD -
TBD -
Rezekne -
Kalupe 2
AFA Olaine 1
TBD -
New Project -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Karosta 3
Riga United 1
TBD -
FK Madona Kvarcs -
Lubana -
TBD -
TBD -
Tente -
FK Alberts -
TBD -
TBD -
Lielupe -
Aliance 1
Talsu NSS / FK Laidze 0
Monarhs 0
LDZ Cargo/DFA 7
Alberts JDFS -
TBD -
TBD -
Dinamo Riga -
Albatroz -
TBD -
TBD -
Grobina -
Salaspils FK 4
Fk Jurnieks Riga 1
Jurmalas 1
Jauniba / Upesciems 2
Marupe -
TBD -
FK Limbazi 2
Caramba 8
BFC Daugavpils -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Spartaks Jurmala -
FK Metta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
1/32-finals
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Valmiera -
FK Smiltene 3
Ghetto / Gvatar 0
Nikers 1
Livani 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Tukums 2000 5
FK Auda Riga 1
Keiko Jekabpils 2
Krimulda 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ventspils -
Super Nova 4
Rezekne 3
Kalupe 0
New Project 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Karosta 8
FK Madona Kvarcs 1
Lubana 2
Tente 6
FK Alberts 2
Lielupe 1
Aliance 1
LDZ Cargo/DFA 2
Alberts JDFS 3
Dinamo Riga 1
Albatroz 1
Grobina 2
Salaspils FK 3
Jauniba / Upesciems 0
Marupe 3
Caramba 5
BFC Daugavpils -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Spartaks Jurmala -
FK Metta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
1/16-finals
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
Valmiera -
FK Smiltene 7
Livani 0
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Tukums 2000 9
Krimulda 1
TBD -
Ventspils -
Super Nova 2
New Project 1
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Karosta 1
Tente 0
FK Alberts 0
LDZ Cargo/DFA 6
Alberts JDFS 4
Grobina 2
Salaspils FK 0
Caramba 1
BFC Daugavpils -
TBD -
TBD -
Spartaks Jurmala -
FK Metta -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
1/8-finals
RFS 2
Valmiera 1
FK Smiltene 0
FK Liepaja 4
Tukums 2000 4
Ventspils 1
Super Nova 0
Riga FC 6
FK Karosta 4
LDZ Cargo/DFA 1
Alberts JDFS 0
Caramba 1
BFC Daugavpils 1
Spartaks Jurmala 0
FK Metta 0
Jelgava 1
Quarter-finals
RFS 2
FK Liepaja 1
Tukums 2000 0
Riga FC 4
FK Karosta 2
Caramba 1
BFC Daugavpils 1
Jelgava 2
Semi-finals
RFS 3
Riga FC 1
FK Karosta 0
Jelgava 5
Final
RFS 3
Jelgava 2