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Carapinheirense vs Mortagua FC

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group E 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group E 2020/2021 game between Carapinheirense and Mortagua FC finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Carapinheirense
22%
Draws
18%
Mortagua FC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Carapinheirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mortagua FC come out ahead of Carapinheirense on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Carapinheirense's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Carapinheirense Clean Sheet 20%
Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carapinheirense Mortagua FC
Matches Played 29 37
Wins 7 16
Draws 10 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0 1.25
Goals Conceded 0 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Carapinheirense vs Mortagua FC
2:2
Nov 22, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Mortagua FC vs Carapinheirense
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carapinheirense 58 / 100
Mortagua FC 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carapinheirense Mortagua FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carapinheirense found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Mortagua FC conceded in 65% of 37 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Carapinheirense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Mortagua FC
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Leiria20145134:947
2Oliveira Hospital2097424:1934
3SB Castelo Branco2088421:1432
4Condeixa2078518:1729
5Marinhense2084823:2128
6Oleiros2068628:2726
7Carapinheirense2056921:2621
8Sertanense2049722:2421
9Vitoria Sernache2056925:2821
10Alcains2038914:3417
11Mortagua FC20111815:2614
12GRAP / Grupo Recreativo Amigos Da Paz00000:00