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Caravaca vs Montecasillas

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Piqueras A.
3' Event
Piqueras A.
5' Event
Jimenez D.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 game between Caravaca and Montecasillas finished 8-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caravaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Caravaca
20%
Draws
30%
Montecasillas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caravaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Caravaca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Caravaca taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Caravaca Clean Sheet 20%
Montecasillas Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaca Montecasillas
Matches Played 39 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 15 2
Losses 13 21
Goals Scored 1.38 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.15 2.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Caravaca vs Montecasillas
8:0
Jan 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Montecasillas vs Caravaca
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Piqueras A.
4 Goals
Assists Leader Jimenez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Montecasillas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaca 85 / 100
Montecasillas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaca Montecasillas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Montecasillas conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Caravaca's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 39 recent games.

Solid form: Caravaca remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Caravaca VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaca

(Home)
09 May
Bala Azul
2 : 4
Caravaca
03 May
Caravaca
0 : 1
Club Olimpico de Totana
25 Apr
FC Cartagena SAD B
0 : 0
Caravaca
19 Apr
Caravaca
1 : 1
Real Murcia B
12 Apr
Yeclano B
3 : 1
Caravaca
Page 1 of 8

Montecasillas

(Away)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
04 May
Montecasillas
1 : 3
Molinense
01 May
Caravaca
8 : 0
Montecasillas
27 Apr
Montecasillas
1 : 7
Lorca Deportiva
21 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 0
Montecasillas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)