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Caravaggio vs Gremio Juventus - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Dentinho
(Penalty)
31' Event
Rodrigo Milanez
47' Event
Cruz R.

AI Match Summary

Caravaggio in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caravaggio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Caravaggio
20%
Draws
28%
Gremio Juventus
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Caravaggio lately — more wins on the board than Gremio Juventus.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Caravaggio taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 68%
Gremio Juventus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaggio Gremio Juventus
Matches Played 31 22
Wins 15 6
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.84 0.91
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Gremio Juventus
3:1
Jun 7, 2026 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Caravaggio
0:3
Aug 11, 2024 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Gremio Juventus
3:1
Aug 4, 2024 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Caravaggio
2:1
May 26, 2024 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Caravaggio
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo Milanez
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cruz R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Gremio Juventus Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaggio 95 / 100
Gremio Juventus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaggio Gremio Juventus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaggio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Caravaggio stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Caravaggio found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Gremio Juventus conceded in 73% of 22 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Caravaggio VS Gremio Juventus
2.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaggio

(Home)
25 Jul
Caravaggio
3 : 1
Gremio Juventus
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
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Gremio Juventus

(Away)
25 Jul
Caravaggio
3 : 1
Gremio Juventus
22 Jul
Gremio Juventus
0 : 2
CA Metropolitano
19 Jul
Gremio Juventus
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
15 Jul
Hercilio Luz
1 : 0
Gremio Juventus
12 Jul
Gremio Juventus
1 : 0
Guarani de Palhoca
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)