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Caravaggio vs Gremio Juventus

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Sun, Jul 26, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Caravaggio host Gremio Juventus in the Catarinense 2. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Caravaggio have averaged 2.75 scored and 1.13 conceded recently, against Gremio Juventus's 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded. Past meetings favor Caravaggio slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 7, 2026, ending 0:3. The numbers (2.06 xG vs 1.19) point toward Caravaggio. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Caravaggio
6%
Draws
4%
Gremio Juventus
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Caravaggio lately — more wins on the board than Gremio Juventus.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Caravaggio taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 20%
Gremio Juventus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaggio Gremio Juventus
Matches Played 29 21
Wins 14 5
Draws 5 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 2.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Caravaggio
0:3
Aug 11, 2024 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Gremio Juventus
3:1
Aug 4, 2024 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Caravaggio
2:1
May 26, 2024 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Caravaggio
3:2
Jun 11, 2023 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Caravaggio
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaggio 85 / 100
Gremio Juventus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaggio Gremio Juventus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Caravaggio's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Gremio Juventus conceded in 71% of 21 recent games.

Solid form: Caravaggio remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Caravaggio VS Gremio Juventus
2.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaggio

(Home)
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
05 Jul
CA Metropolitano
2 : 1
Caravaggio
28 Jun
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Guarani de Palhoca
Page 1 of 6

Gremio Juventus

(Away)
15 Jul
Hercilio Luz
1 : 0
Gremio Juventus
12 Jul
Gremio Juventus
1 : 0
Guarani de Palhoca
08 Jul
Blumenau
1 : 1
Gremio Juventus
04 Jul
Gremio Juventus
8 : 1
Jaragua-SC
21 Jun
Gremio Juventus
0 : 2
Tubarao
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz15112231:935
2CA Metropolitano16102431:1832
3Caravaggio1694344:1931
4Blumenau1583431:1227
5Tubarao1565422:1523
6Fluminense-SC1553714:1818
7Nacao1646616:2418
8Guarani de Palhoca1544714:2316
9Gremio Juventus1542913:2114
10Jaragua-SC1601156:631
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)