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Stadium Background

Caravaggio vs Nacao

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Rodrigo Milanez
34' Event
Cruz R.
53' Event
Evaristo

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Caravaggio and Nacao finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caravaggio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Caravaggio
35%
Draws
10%
Nacao
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Caravaggio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 55% — that's where the model lands on Caravaggio taking it.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 68%
Nacao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaggio Nacao
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 6 11
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.84 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Caravaggio
2:2
May 27, 2026 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Nacao
4:1
Aug 5, 2023 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Caravaggio
1:0
Jul 30, 2023 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Nacao
1:0
Jul 16, 2023 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Nacao
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo Milanez
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cruz R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Modesto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaggio 95 / 100
Nacao 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaggio Nacao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaggio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Caravaggio went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Caravaggio's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Nacao let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Caravaggio VS Nacao
2.63 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaggio

(Home)
25 Jul
Caravaggio
3 : 1
Gremio Juventus
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
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Nacao

(Away)
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1
Nacao
23 Sept
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
3 : 3
Nacao
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Figueirense
1 : 0
Nacao
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)