Sport Picks
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon
England
EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff 
Match Events
29'
29'
Sasu A.
Assist: Asiimwe N.
46'
46'
Sub
Kellyman O. In: Pearce L.
Out: Kellyman O.
46'
46'
Sub
Osho G. In: Williams N.
Out: Osho G.
AI Match Summary
AFC Wimbledon in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-5. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cardiff
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Cardiff lately — more wins on the board than AFC Wimbledon.
- 90% — that's where the model lands on Cardiff taking it.
- Cardiff have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Cardiff, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Cardiff have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 18%
AFC Wimbledon Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cardiff | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 16 | 9 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 5 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 2.75 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.75 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.88 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 17, 2026 League One
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon
4:1
Dec 2, 2025 EFL Trophy
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon
1:5
Aug 19, 2025 League One
AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff
0:1
Aug 11, 2015 EFL Cup
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cardiff Compare
Top Goalscorer Giles L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38
AFC Wimbledon Compare
Top Goalscorer Sasu A.
4 Goals Assists Leader Bugiel O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cardiff 85 / 100
AFC Wimbledon 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cardiff AFC Wimbledon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Cardiff scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.
AFC Wimbledon let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 3.25 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Cardiff stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Cardiff VS AFC Wimbledon
2.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Cardiff
(Home) 25 Jul
Forest Green
1 : 5 Cardiff
14 Jul
Cork City
1 : 6 Cardiff
11 Jul
Cardiff
0 : 6 Midtjylland
02 May
Mansfield
5 : 4 Cardiff
25 Apr
Cardiff
5 : 1 Northampton
Page 1 of 6
11 Jul
Cardiff
0 : 6 Midtjylland
25 Apr
Cardiff
5 : 1 Northampton
22 Apr
Cardiff
1 : 0 Port Vale
11 Apr
Cardiff
2 : 0 Bolton
21 Mar
Cardiff
0 : 0 Blackpool
Page 1 of 3
AFC Wimbledon
(Away) 28 Jul
Wealdstone
1 : 0 AFC Wimbledon
25 Jul
AFC Wimbledon
2 : 0 Charlton
22 Jul
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 0 Norwich
18 Jul
Sutton
1 : 2 AFC Wimbledon
02 May
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 4 Huddersfield
Page 1 of 6
28 Jul
Wealdstone
1 : 0 AFC Wimbledon
18 Jul
Sutton
1 : 2 AFC Wimbledon
25 Apr
Wigan
0 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
11 Apr
Burton
1 : 0 AFC Wimbledon
03 Apr
Lincoln City
1 : 0 AFC Wimbledon
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City0
Huddersfield2
Salford2
Rotherham7
Doncaster5
Chesterfield1
Tranmere0
Fleetwood Town3
Bolton3
Bradford City0
Port Vale5
Barnsley0
Crewe1
Stockport County2
Harrogate4
Blackpool2
Luton4
Exeter0
Swindon1
Peterborough0
Bristol Rovers3
Cambridge Utd2
Leyton Orient0
Plymouth1
Cardiff1
AFC Wimbledon5
Colchester0
West Ham U211
Northampton2
Wycombe0
Stevenage1
Walsall2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield3
Rotherham0
Doncaster3
Fleetwood Town1
Bolton0
Port Vale1
Stockport County2
Harrogate1
Luton1
Swindon2
Bristol Rovers3
Plymouth4
AFC Wimbledon4
West Ham U212
Northampton4
Walsall2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield1
Doncaster2
Port Vale0
Stockport County4
Luton2
Plymouth1
AFC Wimbledon1
Northampton2
Semi-finals
Doncaster0
Stockport County1
Luton2
Northampton1
Final
Stockport County1
Luton3
