Sport Picks
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon
England
EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff 
Match Events
29'
29'
Sasu A.
Assist: Asiimwe N.
46'
46'
Sub
Kellyman O. In: Pearce L.
Out: Kellyman O.
46'
46'
Sub
Osho G. In: Williams N.
Out: Osho G.
AI Match Summary
AFC Wimbledon in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-5. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AFC Wimbledon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Cardiff lately — more wins on the board than AFC Wimbledon.
- 57% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Cardiff have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Cardiff, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Cardiff have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 19%
AFC Wimbledon Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cardiff | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 9 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 0.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.53 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 17, 2026 League One
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon
4:1
Dec 2, 2025 EFL Trophy
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon
1:5
Aug 19, 2025 League One
AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff
0:1
Aug 11, 2015 EFL Cup
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cardiff Compare
Top Goalscorer Giles L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
AFC Wimbledon Compare
Top Goalscorer Sasu A.
4 Goals Assists Leader Bugiel O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cardiff 36 / 100
AFC Wimbledon 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cardiff AFC Wimbledon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AFC Wimbledon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Cardiff scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 3.25 goals.
AFC Wimbledon has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Recent resilience: Cardiff stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Cardiff VS AFC Wimbledon
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Cardiff
(Home) 19 Sept
Cardiff
3 : 1 Charlton
12 Sept
Bolton
1 : 0 Cardiff
08 Sept
Cardiff
1 : 1 Stoke City
05 Sept
Portsmouth
2 : 0 Cardiff
02 Sept
QPR
2 : 1 Cardiff
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Cardiff
3 : 1 Charlton
08 Sept
Cardiff
1 : 1 Stoke City
29 Aug
Cardiff
2 : 2 Sheffield Utd
25 Aug
Cardiff
1 : 2 Norwich
17 Aug
Cardiff
1 : 1 Wrexham
Page 1 of 4
AFC Wimbledon
(Away) 17 Sept
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 0 Milton Keynes Dons
12 Sept
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0 Doncaster
07 Sept
Bromley
0 : 2 AFC Wimbledon
02 Sept
Burton
4 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
30 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0 Wigan
Page 1 of 6
07 Sept
Bromley
0 : 2 AFC Wimbledon
02 Sept
Burton
4 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
27 Aug
Fulham
3 : 0 AFC Wimbledon
18 Aug
Leyton Orient
2 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
15 Aug
Huddersfield
3 : 0 AFC Wimbledon
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City 0
Huddersfield 2
Salford 2
Rotherham 7
Doncaster 5
Chesterfield 1
Tranmere 0
Fleetwood Town 3
Bolton 3
Bradford City 0
Port Vale 5
Barnsley 0
Crewe 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 4
Blackpool 2
Luton 4
Exeter 0
Swindon 1
Peterborough 0
Bristol Rovers 3
Cambridge Utd 2
Leyton Orient 0
Plymouth 1
Cardiff 1
AFC Wimbledon 5
Colchester 0
West Ham U21 1
Northampton 2
Wycombe 0
Stevenage 1
Walsall 2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield 3
Rotherham 0
Doncaster 3
Fleetwood Town 1
Bolton 0
Port Vale 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 1
Luton 1
Swindon 2
Bristol Rovers 3
Plymouth 4
AFC Wimbledon 4
West Ham U21 2
Northampton 4
Walsall 2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield 1
Doncaster 2
Port Vale 0
Stockport County 4
Luton 2
Plymouth 1
AFC Wimbledon 1
Northampton 2
Semi-finals
Doncaster 0
Stockport County 1
Luton 2
Northampton 1
Final
Stockport County 1
Luton 3
