Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Cardiff

3 - 1

Arsenal U21

Our Tip

Match Events

17'

Washington M.

Assist: Sagoe Jr C.

17'

Spiers W.

19'

Perrett T.

Assist: Ola D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Cardiff advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%

Cardiff

35%

Draws

39%

Arsenal U21

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arsenal U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence

Arsenal U21 haven't matched Cardiff's recent run of results.
Win probability leans Cardiff's way, sitting at 60%.
Cardiff have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Cardiff, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 93%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 59%

Over 4.5 Goals 27%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%

Cardiff Clean Sheet 18%

Arsenal U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cardiff	Arsenal U21
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	14	10
Draws	8	9
Losses	9	11
Goals Scored	2.16	1.37
Goals Conceded	1.52	1.83
Expected Goals (xG)	2.50	1.32
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 11, 2025 EFL Trophy

Cardiff vs Arsenal U21

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cardiff Compare

Top Goalscorer Perrett T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Spiers W.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.92

Avg xA / game 1.25

Arsenal U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Washington M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.2

Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cardiff 58 / 100

Arsenal U21 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cardiff Arsenal U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cardiff Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cardiff's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Arsenal U21 let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Cardiff has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cardiff VS Arsenal U21

3 Goals Scored 1.14

1.5 Goals Conceded 2

100% Over 1.5 86%

88% Over 2.5 57%

75% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Cardiff

(Home)

19 Sept

Cardiff

3 : 1

Charlton

12 Sept

Bolton

1 : 0

Cardiff

08 Sept

Cardiff

1 : 1

Stoke City

05 Sept

Portsmouth

2 : 0

Cardiff

02 Sept

QPR

2 : 1

Cardiff

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Arsenal U21

(Away)

18 Sept

Birmingham U21

0 : 0

Arsenal U21

15 Sept

Leyton Orient

1 : 2

Arsenal U21

12 Sept

Arsenal U21

1 : 4

Chelsea U21

31 Aug

Brighton U21

2 : 2

Arsenal U21

22 Aug

Arsenal U21

1 : 1

Crystal Palace U21

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