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Cardiff vs Bolton

England England

League One 2025/2026 Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Kellyman O.
Assist: Bagan J.
52' Event
Willock C.
Assist: Robertson A.
60'
Sub
Gale T. In: Apter R.
Out: Gale T.

AI Match Summary

Cardiff in this League One 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cardiff.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Cardiff
33%
Draws
27%
Bolton
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Cardiff

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cardiff lately — more wins on the board than Bolton.
  • Win probability leans Cardiff's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 10%
Bolton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cardiff Bolton
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 8 11
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 3 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 League One
Cardiff vs Bolton
2:0
Oct 25, 2025 League One
Bolton vs Cardiff
1:0
Feb 13, 2018 Championship
Cardiff vs Bolton
2:0
Dec 23, 2017 Championship
Bolton vs Cardiff
2:0
Apr 23, 2016 Championship
Cardiff vs Bolton
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cardiff Compare

Top Goalscorer Kellyman O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Willock C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Bolton Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cardiff 38 / 100
Bolton 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cardiff Bolton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cardiff found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Bolton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Cardiff went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cardiff VS Bolton
3 Goals Scored 2.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cardiff

(Home)
25 Jul
Forest Green
1 : 5
Cardiff
14 Jul
Cork City
1 : 6
Cardiff
11 Jul
Cardiff
0 : 6
Midtjylland
02 May
Mansfield
5 : 4
Cardiff
25 Apr
Cardiff
5 : 1
Northampton
Page 1 of 6

Bolton

(Away)
28 Jul
Fleetwood Town
1 : 1
Bolton
25 Jul
Bolton
0 : 0
Everton
21 Jul
Oldham
1 : 3
Bolton
17 Jul
Dun. Streda
2 : 1
Bolton
24 May
Bolton
4 : 1
Stockport County
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lincoln City463110589:41103
2Cardiff462710990:5091
3Stockport County4622111371:5877
4Bradford City4622111358:5177
5Bolton461918970:5275
6Stevenage4621121349:4675
7Luton4621111468:5674
8Plymouth462271775:6373
9Huddersfield4618131574:6467
10Mansfield4616171362:5065
11Wycombe4617121769:5863
12Reading4616151564:6063
13Blackpool461792054:6560
14Doncaster461792050:6960
15Barnsley4615141768:7359
16Wigan4614141849:5856
17Burton4613151850:6054
18Peterborough461582364:6853
19AFC Wimbledon461582351:7253
20Leyton Orient4614102259:7152
21Exeter4612132152:6149
22Port Vale4610122436:6142
23Rotherham4610112541:7141
24Northampton46982939:7435
Promotion - Championship (Main)
Promotion - League One 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Main)