Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Cardiff

0 - 1

Newport

Our Tip

Match Events

23'

Sub

Ogunneye H. In: Thomas J.

Out: Ogunneye H.

42'

Turnbull D.

43'

Davies T.

Assist: Whitmore K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Newport in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%

Cardiff

15%

Draws

21%

Newport

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cardiff

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence

Form's been kind to Cardiff lately — more wins on the board than Newport.
Cardiff are the model's pick here, at 90%.
Cardiff have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Cardiff, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
History favors Cardiff here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 79%

Over 3.5 Goals 69%

Over 4.5 Goals 31%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%

Cardiff Clean Sheet 10%

Newport Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cardiff	Newport
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	16	10
Draws	8	4
Losses	5	15
Goals Scored	2.34	1.03
Goals Conceded	1.31	1.72
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2025 EFL Trophy

Cardiff vs Newport

0:1

Jul 12, 2022 Club Friendly

Cardiff vs Newport

2:0

Jul 31, 2021 Club Friendly

Cardiff vs Newport

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cardiff Compare

Avg xG / game 1.83

Avg xA / game 1.19

Newport Compare

Top Goalscorer Davies T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.87

Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cardiff 83 / 100

Newport 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cardiff Newport

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cardiff found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Newport's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Cardiff stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cardiff VS Newport

3.38 Goals Scored 2

2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38

88% Over 1.5 88%

88% Over 2.5 88%

88% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cardiff

(Home)

08 Aug

Cardiff

3 : 2

Swindon

01 Aug

Cardiff

4 : 1

AS Roma

25 Jul

Forest Green

1 : 5

Cardiff

14 Jul

Cork City

1 : 6

Cardiff

11 Jul

Cardiff

0 : 6

Midtjylland

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Newport

(Away)

08 Aug

AFC Wimbledon

2 : 1

Newport

04 Aug

Newport

1 : 4

AS Roma

01 Aug

Yeovil

1 : 2

Newport

28 Jul

Newport

0 : 4

Reading

25 Jul

Bath City

2 : 2

Newport

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