Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cariari Pococi vs Carmelita

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cariari Pococi play Carmelita in the Liga de Ascenso. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cariari Pococi averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Carmelita averaged 1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Cariari Pococi won 1, Carmelita won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Mar 12, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Cariari Pococi and 1.06 for Carmelita. This points to a Cariari Pococi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Cariari Pococi
35%
Draws
29%
Carmelita
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cariari Pococi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Cariari Pococi picked up more points recently compared to Carmelita.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Cariari Pococi Clean Sheet 22%
Carmelita Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cariari Pococi Carmelita
Matches Played 27 26
Wins 7 5
Draws 10 10
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.37 1
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Cariari Pococi vs Carmelita
2:1
Jan 23, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Cariari Pococi
1:1
Oct 11, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Cariari Pococi
1:1
Oct 1, 2025 Copa Costa Rica
Cariari Pococi vs Carmelita
0:2
Sep 24, 2025 Copa Costa Rica
Carmelita vs Cariari Pococi
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cariari Pococi Compare

Top Goalscorer French R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Carmelita Compare

Top Goalscorer Posada M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cariari Pococi 37 / 100
Carmelita 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cariari Pococi Carmelita

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Cariari Pococi or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cariari Pococi attacking → ← attacking Carmelita

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cariari Pococi scored in 81% of their last 27 games.

Carmelita let in goals in 73% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Cariari Pococi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Carmelita lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 25
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1ADR Jicaral1493225:1230
2Inter San Carlos1484225:1428
3Quepos Cambute1491430:2128
4Santa Cruz1445519:1717
5Grecia1445516:1817
6AD Sarchi1445519:2317
7Cofutpa1424814:2710
8Dep. Upala1405915:315
9Municipal Turrialba00000:00
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Escorpiones14102233:1032
2CS Uruguay1472525:2023
3Pitbulls1464420:1622
4Consultants Desamparados1454519:1919
5Cariari Pococi1436519:2315
6Aserri1428415:2814
7Santa Ana1333719:2812
8Carmelita1325610:1611
9Limon Black Star00000:00