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Carlisle vs Boreham Wood

England England

National League 2025/2026 Brunton Park, Carlisle
Sun, May 3, 2026
1 - 2
11:30 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Abdulmalik A.
Assist: Booty R.
37'
Galvin R.
40' Event
Feeney M.
Assist: Ajiboye D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Boreham Wood advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Carlisle
30%
Draws
34%
Boreham Wood
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Carlisle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Carlisle haven't matched Boreham Wood's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Carlisle's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Boreham Wood arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Boreham Wood, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Carlisle Clean Sheet 14%
Boreham Wood Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carlisle Boreham Wood
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 18 21
Draws 4 5
Losses 7 5
Goals Scored 1.5 2.5
Goals Conceded 0.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 National League
Carlisle vs Boreham Wood
1:2
Dec 21, 2025 National League
Boreham Wood vs Carlisle
2:0
Aug 16, 2025 National League
Carlisle vs Boreham Wood
3:3
Nov 19, 2013 FA Cup
Carlisle vs Boreham Wood
2:1
Nov 9, 2013 FA Cup
Boreham Wood vs Carlisle
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carlisle Compare

Top Goalscorer Feeney M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Boreham Wood Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdulmalik A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brunt Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carlisle 35 / 100
Boreham Wood 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carlisle Boreham Wood

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carlisle found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Boreham Wood let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Carlisle went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carlisle VS Boreham Wood
1.5 Goals Scored 2.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Carlisle

(Home)
01 Aug
Derby U21
0 : 3
Carlisle
28 Jul
Carlisle
0 : 2
Salford
21 Jul
Darlington FC
2 : 4
Carlisle
03 May
Carlisle
1 : 2
Boreham Wood
25 Apr
Carlisle
3 : 0
Brackley
Page 1 of 6

Boreham Wood

(Away)
31 Jul
Boreham Wood
2 : 1
Norwich U21
28 Jul
Dagenham & Red.
1 : 2
Boreham Wood
21 Jul
Boreham Wood
2 : 1
Tottenham U21
17 Jul
Boreham Wood
1 : 1
Arsenal U21
14 Jul
Real Bedford
2 : 8
Boreham Wood
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rochdale -
TBD -
Scunthorpe 1
Southend 0
Carlisle -
TBD -
Boreham Wood 1
Forest Green 0
Semi-finals
Rochdale 2
Scunthorpe 1
Carlisle 1
Boreham Wood 2
Final
Rochdale 3
Boreham Wood 2