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Carlisle vs Boreham Wood - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

National League 2025/2026 Brunton Park, Carlisle
Sun, May 3, 2026
1 - 2
11:30 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Abdulmalik A.
Assist: Booty R.
37'
Galvin R.
40' Event
Feeney M.
Assist: Ajiboye D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Boreham Wood advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Carlisle
15%
Draws
54%
Boreham Wood
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Boreham Wood

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Carlisle haven't matched Boreham Wood's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Boreham Wood's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Boreham Wood arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Boreham Wood, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Carlisle Clean Sheet 10%
Boreham Wood Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carlisle Boreham Wood
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 22
Draws 7 3
Losses 7 3
Goals Scored 2 2.5
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 National League
Boreham Wood vs Carlisle
2:1
May 3, 2026 National League
Carlisle vs Boreham Wood
1:2
Dec 21, 2025 National League
Boreham Wood vs Carlisle
2:0
Aug 16, 2025 National League
Carlisle vs Boreham Wood
3:3
Nov 19, 2013 FA Cup
Carlisle vs Boreham Wood
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carlisle Compare

Top Goalscorer Feeney M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Boreham Wood Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdulmalik A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brunt Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carlisle 10 / 100
Boreham Wood 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carlisle Boreham Wood

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Boreham Wood Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carlisle found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Boreham Wood has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Carlisle went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carlisle VS Boreham Wood
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Carlisle

(Home)
03 Oct
Aldershot
1 : 3
Carlisle
29 Sept
AFC Fylde
0 : 2
Carlisle
26 Sept
Carlisle
2 : 5
Woking
19 Sept
Eastleigh
1 : 0
Carlisle
15 Sept
Carlisle
1 : 1
Forest Green
Page 1 of 6

Boreham Wood

(Away)
03 Oct
Boreham Wood
3 : 1
Altrincham
29 Sept
Boreham Wood
3 : 1
Kidderminster
26 Sept
Solihull Moors
0 : 3
Boreham Wood
23 Sept
Boreham Wood
1 : 2
Everton U21
19 Sept
Boreham Wood
4 : 1
Harrogate
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rochdale -
TBD -
Scunthorpe 1
Southend 0
Carlisle -
TBD -
Boreham Wood 1
Forest Green 0
Semi-finals
Rochdale 2
Scunthorpe 1
Carlisle 1
Boreham Wood 2
Final
Rochdale 3
Boreham Wood 2