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Carlos Renaux vs Marcilio Dias - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Estádio Augusto Bauer, Brusque
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Match Events

35' Event
de Deus C. d. A.
45' Event
Erverson
46'
Sub
Ze Carlos In: Roldan
Out: Ze Carlos

AI Match Summary

Carlos Renaux in this Catarinense matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carlos Renaux.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Carlos Renaux
20%
Draws
40%
Marcilio Dias
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Marcilio Dias lately — more wins on the board than Carlos Renaux.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Catarinense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Carlos Renaux Clean Sheet 20%
Marcilio Dias Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carlos Renaux Marcilio Dias
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.14 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 Catarinense
Carlos Renaux vs Marcilio Dias
2:1
Feb 9, 2026 Catarinense
Marcilio Dias vs Carlos Renaux
1:1
Jan 25, 2026 Catarinense
Carlos Renaux vs Marcilio Dias
2:4
Oct 28, 2022 Copa Santa Catarina
Marcilio Dias vs Carlos Renaux
0:2
Oct 23, 2022 Copa Santa Catarina
Carlos Renaux vs Marcilio Dias
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carlos Renaux Compare

Top Goalscorer de Deus C. d. A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erverson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Marcilio Dias Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaique Maciel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carlos Renaux 32 / 100
Marcilio Dias 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carlos Renaux Marcilio Dias

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Carlos Renaux scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Marcilio Dias has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Carlos Renaux went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Marcilio Dias
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Carlos Renaux

(Home)
06 Mar
Figueirense
2 : 4
Carlos Renaux
26 Feb
Carlos Renaux
2 : 1
Marcilio Dias
19 Feb
Carlos Renaux
2 : 1
Joinville
14 Feb
Joinville
3 : 0
Carlos Renaux
09 Feb
Marcilio Dias
1 : 1
Carlos Renaux
Page 1 of 6

Marcilio Dias

(Away)
26 Sept
Blumenau
1 : 1
Marcilio Dias
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Hercilio Luz
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1
Marcilio Dias
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5
Marcilio Dias
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Joinville
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marcilio Dias 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
2 Carlos Renaux 6 4 1 1 10:8 13
3 Figueirense 6 2 0 4 6:7 7
4 Joinville 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Relegation - Catarinense 2 2027 (Main)