Sport Picks
Carmarthen Town vs Colwyn Bay
Wales
FAW Welsh Cup 2025/2026 Richmond Park, Carmarthen 
Match Events
7'
7'
Davies J.
22'
22'
Sirrell L.
68'
68'
Robles L.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-3, with Colwyn Bay advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
24%
20%
56%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Colwyn Bay
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Carmarthen Town haven't matched Colwyn Bay's recent run of results.
- 56% — that's where the model lands on Colwyn Bay taking it.
- Colwyn Bay arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Colwyn Bay, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 10%
Colwyn Bay Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Carmarthen Town | Colwyn Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 15 |
| Draws | 8 | 4 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.03 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 22, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Carmarthen Town vs Colwyn Bay
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Carmarthen Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Thomas L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Colwyn Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Davies J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sirrell L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Carmarthen Town 10 / 100
Colwyn Bay 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Carmarthen Town Colwyn Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Colwyn Bay Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Carmarthen Town scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Colwyn Bay has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Carmarthen Town went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Carmarthen Town VS Colwyn Bay
2 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Carmarthen Town
(Home) 02 Oct
Carmarthen Town
1 : 2 Llantwit Major
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Carmarthen Town
2 : 2 Ynyshir Albions
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3 Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 6
02 Oct
Carmarthen Town
1 : 2 Llantwit Major
12 Sept
Carmarthen Town
2 : 2 Ynyshir Albions
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3 Trethomas Bluebirds
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4 Treowen
14 Aug
Carmarthen Town
3 : 1 Afan Lido
Page 1 of 4
Colwyn Bay
(Away) 03 Oct
Briton Ferry
1 : 0 Colwyn Bay
26 Sept
Colwyn Bay
1 : 0 Haverfordwest
18 Sept
Colwyn Bay
5 : 2 Barry Town
15 Sept
Holywell Town FC
0 : 5 Colwyn Bay
12 Sept
Colwyn Bay
2 : 1 Connahs Q.
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Briton Ferry
1 : 0 Colwyn Bay
15 Sept
Holywell Town FC
0 : 5 Colwyn Bay
05 Sept
Penybont
1 : 0 Colwyn Bay
28 Aug
TNS
5 : 1 Colwyn Bay
15 Aug
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Colwyn Bay
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
