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Carmelita vs Guadalupe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Carmelita host Guadalupe in the Liga de Ascenso. Little to choose between these two on current form. Guadalupe have shipped 2.07 goals a game lately, while Carmelita have conceded 1.38 and scored 1.24. Head-to-head, Carmelita have won 3 to Guadalupe's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 25, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.88 - 1.19) back Carmelita to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Carmelita
20%
Draws
23%
Guadalupe
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Carmelita

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Guadalupe haven't matched Carmelita's recent run of results.
  • Carmelita are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga de Ascenso form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Carmelita Clean Sheet 20%
Guadalupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carmelita Guadalupe
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 5
Draws 9 8
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.24 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.38 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 25, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Guadalupe vs Carmelita
0:1
Mar 27, 2019 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Carmelita
1:1
Feb 3, 2019 Primera Division
Carmelita vs Guadalupe
4:1
Nov 4, 2018 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Carmelita
2:1
Sep 9, 2018 Primera Division
Carmelita vs Guadalupe
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carmelita 85 / 100
Guadalupe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carmelita Guadalupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmelita Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadalupe has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Carmelita scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Carmelita has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Carmelita VS Guadalupe
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Carmelita

(Home)
02 Oct
FC Moravia
0 : 3
Carmelita
26 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 0
Santa Ana
18 Sept
Carmelita
6 : 0
CS Uruguay
13 Sept
Cariari Pococi
1 : 1
Carmelita
07 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 2
Pitbulls
Page 1 of 6

Guadalupe

(Away)
04 Oct
Aserri
2 : 3
Guadalupe
27 Sept
Guadalupe
2 : 2
Pitbulls
19 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 3
FC Moravia
13 Sept
Santa Ana
2 : 1
Guadalupe
06 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 1
CS Uruguay
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADR Jicaral 9 6 3 0 15:5 21
2 Quepos FC 9 5 1 3 13:7 16
3 Grecia 8 4 2 2 9:6 14
4 AD Rosario 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
5 AD Sarchi 8 3 2 3 8:11 11
6 Santa Cruz 9 2 0 7 11:19 6
7 Cofutpa 9 1 1 7 8:17 4
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Ana 10 7 0 3 14:10 21
2 Pitbulls 10 5 4 1 18:13 19
3 Carmelita 10 4 3 3 19:11 15
4 Aserri 10 4 2 4 10:11 14
5 Cariari Pococi 10 3 4 3 11:11 13
6 FC Moravia 10 3 1 6 12:13 10
7 Guadalupe 10 2 3 5 13:19 9
8 CS Uruguay 10 2 3 5 9:18 9
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)