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Carmopolis vs Sergipe

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Tony

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2024 game between Carmopolis and Sergipe finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sergipe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Carmopolis
35%
Draws
32%
Sergipe
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Carmopolis haven't matched Sergipe's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Carmopolis a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sergipano 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 26%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Carmopolis Clean Sheet 19%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carmopolis Sergipe
Matches Played 20 32
Wins 3 16
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2025 Sergipano
Carmopolis vs Sergipe
1:2
Feb 10, 2024 Sergipano
Carmopolis vs Sergipe
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carmopolis Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Tony
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carmopolis 36 / 100
Sergipe 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carmopolis Sergipe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carmopolis's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 20 recent games.

Sergipe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Sergipe lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sergipe
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Carmopolis

(Home)
01 Mar
Guarany SE
2 : 1
Carmopolis
22 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
Lagarto
15 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
America de Propria
10 Feb
Falcon
3 : 2
Carmopolis
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
Page 1 of 4

Sergipe

(Away)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 7 0 2 16:6 21
2 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 12:4 20
3 Lagarto 9 5 3 1 15:9 18
4 Itabaiana 9 4 2 3 12:10 14
5 Dorense 9 4 1 4 10:12 13
6 Falcon 9 3 3 3 11:13 12
7 America de Propria 9 3 2 4 13:10 11
8 Carmopolis 9 2 2 5 6:10 8
9 Olimpico EC 9 2 1 6 7:12 7
10 Atletico Gloriense 9 1 0 8 6:22 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sergipano 2024 (Relegation - Play Offs)