Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caronnese vs Varese FC

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Settimo P.
70' Event
Rossini R.
74' Event
Mollica D.

AI Match Summary

Varese FC in this Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Varese FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Caronnese
20%
Draws
80%
Varese FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Varese FC lately — more wins on the board than Caronnese.
  • Varese FC are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Varese FC have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Caronnese Clean Sheet 23%
Varese FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caronnese Varese FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 2 13
Draws 7 9
Losses 21 8
Goals Scored 0.7 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Caronnese vs Varese FC
1:2
Dec 4, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Varese FC vs Caronnese
2:1
Apr 24, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Caronnese vs Varese FC
0:1
Jan 19, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Caronnese
2:0
Feb 28, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Caronnese vs Varese FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caronnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Mollica D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Settimo P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rossini R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caronnese 21 / 100
Varese FC 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caronnese Varese FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Caronnese scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Away concern: Varese FC has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Varese FC
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caronnese

(Home)
07 May
Caronnese
1 : 3
Folgore Caratese
30 Apr
Lumezzane
2 : 0
Caronnese
23 Apr
Caronnese
1 : 2
Ponte San Pietro
16 Apr
Caronnese
1 : 2
Varese FC
06 Apr
Sona
2 : 0
Caronnese
Page 1 of 6

Varese FC

(Away)
16 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 0
Varese FC
12 Sept
Varese FC
0 : 2
Pro Sesto
06 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 1
Varese FC
19 Aug
Varese FC
3 : 2
Pro Palazzolo
08 Aug
Renate
2 : 0
Varese FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lumezzane 34 24 5 5 67:20 77
2 Alcione Milano 34 21 8 5 67:31 71
3 USD Casatese 34 16 11 7 38:26 59
4 Arconatese 34 16 9 9 54:37 57
5 Desenzano Calvina 34 15 8 11 47:41 53
6 Franciacorta 34 13 11 10 44:43 50
7 Ponte San Pietro 34 11 16 7 47:38 49
8 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 14 6 14 42:40 48
9 Brusaporto 34 12 11 11 43:38 47
10 Varesina 34 13 7 14 47:50 46
11 Villa Valle 34 9 14 11 40:47 41
12 Real Calepina 34 7 18 9 30:33 39
13 Folgore Caratese 34 10 9 15 37:46 39
14 Seregno Calcio 34 10 11 13 42:56 38
15 Breno 34 10 7 17 35:50 37
16 Varese FC 34 8 9 17 30:46 33
17 Sona 34 6 9 19 28:56 27
18 Caronnese 34 2 9 23 24:64 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 (Play Out)