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Carrick Rangers vs Glenavon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

Irish League Cup
Tue, Nov 24, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Irish League Cup. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Carrick Rangers have averaged 2.17 scored and 1.41 conceded recently, against Glenavon's 1.86 scored and 1.34 conceded. Past meetings favor Carrick Rangers slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 25, 2026, ending 2:3. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 2.25, favoring Carrick Rangers. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Carrick Rangers
20%
Draws
45%
Glenavon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Glenavon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Carrick Rangers lately — more wins on the board than Glenavon.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Carrick Rangers have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Carrick Rangers, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Carrick Rangers Clean Sheet 10%
Glenavon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carrick Rangers Glenavon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 2.17 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Glenavon vs Carrick Rangers
2:3
Feb 10, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Carrick Rangers vs Glenavon
2:1
Oct 18, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Glenavon vs Carrick Rangers
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Carrick Rangers vs Glenavon
1:0
Apr 26, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Carrick Rangers vs Glenavon
0:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carrick Rangers 34 / 100
Glenavon 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carrick Rangers Glenavon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Glenavon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Carrick Rangers scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Glenavon let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Carrick Rangers went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carrick Rangers VS Glenavon
2.13 Goals Scored 2.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Carrick Rangers

(Home)
20 Oct
Carrick Rangers
3 : 0
Newry City
17 Oct
Carrick Rangers
2 : 2
Linfield
10 Oct
Dungannon
2 : 4
Carrick Rangers
03 Oct
Carrick Rangers
4 : 0
Crusaders
26 Sept
Glentoran
2 : 0
Carrick Rangers
Page 1 of 6

Glenavon

(Away)
20 Oct
Strabane Athletic
0 : 5
Glenavon
16 Oct
Glenavon
4 : 0
Harland & Wolff
10 Oct
Annagh
1 : 1
Glenavon
03 Oct
Moyola
0 : 3
Glenavon
25 Sept
Glenavon
4 : 1
Loughgall
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Warrenpoint 5
Crusaders 2
Portadown 0
Cliftonville 2
Institute 0
Loughgall 3
Ballinamallard 1
Queens University 2
Annagh 3
Limavady 4
Rathfriland Rangers 1
Ards 0
Dundela 1
Moyola 4
Newington FC 1
Ballymena 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bangor FC 1
Dungannon 2
TBD -
TBD -
Carrick Rangers 3
Newry City 0
Strabane Athletic 0
Glenavon 5
Armagh 1
Harland & Wolff 3
TBD -
Linfield -
1/8-finals
Warrenpoint -
Cliftonville -
Loughgall -
Queens University -
Limavady -
Rathfriland Rangers -
Moyola -
Ballymena -
Glentoran -
Larne -
Dungannon -
Coleraine -
Carrick Rangers -
Glenavon -
Harland & Wolff -
Linfield -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -