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Cartagena vs Bogota

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Jaime Morón León, Cartagena
Thu, Aug 20, 2026
VS
10:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cartagena host Bogota in the Primera B. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Cartagena have averaged 1.49 scored and 1.06 conceded recently, against Bogota's 0.77 scored and 1.1 conceded. Head-to-head, Cartagena have won 5 to Bogota's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on May 18, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 1.06, favoring Cartagena. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Cartagena
30%
Draws
41%
Bogota
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bogota

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cartagena lately — more wins on the board than Bogota.
  • 29% — that's where the model lands on Cartagena taking it.
  • Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Cartagena have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Cartagena Clean Sheet 68%
Bogota Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cartagena Bogota
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 13 10
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.49 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 18, 2026 Primera B
Bogota vs Cartagena
1:2
May 2, 2026 Primera B
Cartagena vs Bogota
2:0
Feb 9, 2026 Primera B
Bogota vs Cartagena
0:1
Jul 21, 2025 Primera B
Bogota vs Cartagena
0:3
Feb 9, 2025 Primera B
Cartagena vs Bogota
5:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cartagena 77 / 100
Bogota 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cartagena Bogota

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cartagena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cartagena's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Bogota's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Cartagena has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cartagena VS Bogota
1.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cartagena

(Home)
07 Aug
Cartagena
0 : 2
Independiente Valle del Cauca
02 Aug
Real Cundinamarca
1 : 1
Cartagena
30 Jul
Cartagena
1 : 1
America De Cali
26 Jul
Cartagena
5 : 1
Real Santander
22 Jul
America De Cali
2 : 1
Cartagena
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Bogota

(Away)
06 Aug
Bogota
0 : 1
Leones
02 Aug
Inter Palmira
0 : 0
Bogota
29 Jul
Bogota
0 : 3
Dep. Pasto
25 Jul
Bogota
1 : 0
Union Magdalena
22 Jul
Dep. Pasto
0 : 1
Bogota
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente Valle del Cauca 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
2 Leones 3 2 1 0 3:1 7
3 Cartagena 3 1 1 1 6:4 4
4 Patriotas 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
5 Real Cundinamarca 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
6 Envigado 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
7 Orsomarso 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
8 Bogota 3 1 1 1 1:1 4
9 Boca Juniors de Cali 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
10 Quindio 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
11 Atletico F.C. 3 0 2 1 4:6 2
12 Inter Palmira 3 0 2 1 2:4 2
13 Real Santander 3 0 2 1 5:9 2
14 Barranquilla 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
15 Tigres Futbol Club 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
16 Union Magdalena 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
Promotion - Primera B (Clausura - Quadrangular)