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Cartagines vs Liberia

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio José Rafael Fello Meza, Cartago
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Lesme F.
17' Event
Lesme F.
27' Event
Venegas J.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between Cartagines and Liberia finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cartagines.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Cartagines
30%
Draws
39%
Liberia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Liberia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Cartagines haven't matched Liberia's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Cartagines Clean Sheet 18%
Liberia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cartagines Liberia
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.14 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.30 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Cartagines
1:0
Feb 22, 2026 Primera Division
Cartagines vs Liberia
2:1
Dec 7, 2025 Primera Division
Cartagines vs Liberia
0:0
Jul 26, 2025 Primera Division
Liberia vs Cartagines
1:0
May 3, 2025 Primera Division
Liberia vs Cartagines
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cartagines Compare

Top Goalscorer Venegas J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nunez C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.65

Liberia Compare

Top Goalscorer Lesme F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.75

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cartagines 32 / 100
Liberia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cartagines Liberia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cartagines's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Liberia conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Cartagines stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Cartagines VS Liberia
1.75 Goals Scored 1.71
1 Goals Conceded 0.86
63% Over 1.5 71%
63% Over 2.5 43%
38% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Cartagines

(Home)
08 Aug
Cartagines
2 : 1
Sporting FC
04 Aug
Zeledon
1 : 0
Cartagines
31 Jul
Municipal
1 : 1
Cartagines
25 Jul
Cartagines
3 : 1
Inter San Carlos
10 May
Herediano
0 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

Liberia

(Away)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Herediano 18 12 2 4 26:10 38
2 Saprissa 18 10 4 4 34:19 34
3 Liberia 18 10 3 5 24:18 33
4 Cartagines 18 10 2 6 26:20 32
5 Alajuelense 18 7 5 6 28:20 26
6 Sporting FC 18 6 4 8 16:21 22
7 San Carlos 18 6 3 9 21:25 21
8 Puntarenas FC 18 4 4 10 22:29 16
9 Zeledon 18 2 8 8 19:30 14
10 Guadalupe 18 3 5 10 13:37 14
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)