Sport Picks
Casa Pia vs Moreirense
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior 
Match Events
2'
2'
Maracas
3'
3'
Cassiano
Penalty Missed
40'
40'
Cassiano
Assist: Larrazabal G.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Moreirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Moreirense average 1 goals a game right now, well clear of Casa Pia's 0.94.
- Model gives Moreirense a 51% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 11%
Moreirense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 0.94 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.66 | 1.55 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Moreirense
0:1
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Moreirense
1:1
Sep 27, 2025 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Casa Pia
2:1
Feb 15, 2025 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Casa Pia
3:2
Sep 14, 2024 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Moreirense
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Casa Pia Compare
Top Goalscorer Cassiano
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Moreirense Compare
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Casa Pia 22 / 100
Moreirense 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Casa Pia Moreirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Moreirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Moreirense let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Casa Pia scored in 53% of their last 32 games.
Casa Pia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Casa Pia VS Moreirense
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Casa Pia
(Home) 20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2 Casa Pia
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0 Casa Pia
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
17 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 7 Benfica
28 May
Casa Pia
2 : 0 Torreense
16 May
Casa Pia
1 : 1 Rio Ave
Page 1 of 3
Moreirense
(Away) 20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1 Maritimo
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
25 Jul
Gil Vicente
2 : 2 Moreirense
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
