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Casa Pia vs Torreense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Leo Azevedo
16'
Livolant J.
38' Event
Larrazabal G.
Assist: Prieto K.

AI Match Summary

Casa Pia in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Casa Pia
30%
Draws
47%
Torreense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Torreense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Torreense lately — more wins on the board than Casa Pia.
  • Win probability leans Torreense's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Torreense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Torreense, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 10%
Torreense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casa Pia Torreense
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 6 13
Draws 9 9
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 0.79 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.72 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Torreense
2:0
May 20, 2026 Liga Portugal
Torreense vs Casa Pia
0:0
Dec 17, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Casa Pia vs Torreense
1:2
Jul 19, 2025 Club Friendly
Casa Pia vs Torreense
4:4
Jul 30, 2023 League Cup
Torreense vs Casa Pia
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Casa Pia Compare

Top Goalscorer Larrazabal G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ofori L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Torreense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casa Pia 26 / 100
Torreense 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casa Pia Torreense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Torreense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Casa Pia's goal record stands at 48% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Torreense let in goals in 50% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Casa Pia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Casa Pia VS Torreense
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Casa Pia

(Home)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0
Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1
Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0
Casa Pia
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Torreense

(Away)
17 Sept
Lillestrom
1 : 2
Torreense
11 Sept
Torreense
0 : 0
Leixoes
05 Sept
Benfica B
0 : 2
Torreense
29 Aug
Torreense
0 : 3
Vizela
22 Aug
Lusitania FC
2 : 2
Torreense
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Torreense 0
Casa Pia 2