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Casale vs Castanese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

85' Event
Milani N.
90' Event
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 game between Casale and Castanese finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castanese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Casale
35%
Draws
32%
Castanese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Castanese carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Casale Clean Sheet 10%
Castanese Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casale Castanese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 1 5
Draws 5 11
Losses 24 14
Goals Scored 0.5 1
Goals Conceded 2.43 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Castanese
0:2
Nov 27, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Castanese vs Casale
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Casale Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Castanese Compare

Top Goalscorer Milani N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casale 30 / 100
Castanese 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casale Castanese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castanese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castanese has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Away concern: Castanese has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Casale found the back of the net in 37% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Casale VS Castanese
0.38 Goals Scored 1.75
2.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Casale

(Home)
07 May
Casale
1 : 1
Asti Calcio
30 Apr
Chisola
2 : 1
Casale
23 Apr
Casale
2 : 2
Pinerolo
15 Apr
Sanremese
1 : 0
Casale
06 Apr
Casale
0 : 2
Castanese
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Castanese

(Away)
14 May
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Castanese
07 May
Ligorna
2 : 1
Castanese
30 Apr
Castanese
1 : 1
Stresa Vergante
23 Apr
Vado
2 : 0
Castanese
16 Apr
Castanese
3 : 3
AC Chieri
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)