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Casarano vs Gallipoli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 Stadio Giuseppe Capozza, Casarano
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Hernandez D.
49' Event
Legittimo M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 game between Casarano and Gallipoli finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Casarano
30%
Draws
16%
Gallipoli
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Casarano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Casarano come out ahead of Gallipoli on wins alone.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on Casarano taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Casarano Clean Sheet 20%
Gallipoli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casarano Gallipoli
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 7
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.47 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 7, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Casarano vs Gallipoli
1:1
Nov 25, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Gallipoli vs Casarano
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Casarano Compare

Top Goalscorer Legittimo M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Gallipoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casarano 76 / 100
Gallipoli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casarano Gallipoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Casarano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gallipoli has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Casarano scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Casarano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Casarano VS -
2.13 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Casarano

(Home)
03 Oct
Sorrento
2 : 0
Casarano
27 Sept
Casarano
0 : 1
Monopoli
19 Sept
A.C. Savoia
1 : 1
Casarano
15 Sept
Casarano
1 : 0
Audace Cerignola
11 Sept
Casarano
3 : 1
Barletta
Page 1 of 6

Gallipoli

(Away)
12 May
Angri
2 : 0
Gallipoli
05 May
Martina Calcio
1 : 1
Gallipoli
28 Apr
Gallipoli
1 : 1
Angri
21 Apr
Altamura
2 : 1
Gallipoli
14 Apr
Gallipoli
0 : 3
Gravina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Altamura 34 21 9 4 51:23 72
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 12 4 51:23 66
3 A.C.D. Nardo 34 20 5 9 53:24 65
4 Fidelis Andria 34 17 10 7 58:32 61
5 Casarano 34 15 10 9 45:32 55
6 Matera 34 15 8 11 45:37 53
7 Paganese 34 12 9 13 42:43 45
8 Palmese 1914 34 13 7 14 45:52 45
9 Gelbison 34 11 10 13 41:37 43
10 Rotonda 34 11 9 14 36:36 42
11 Gravina 34 10 11 13 49:44 41
12 Manfredonia 34 9 15 10 28:38 41
13 Citta di Fasano 34 11 8 15 38:57 41
14 Angri 34 10 9 15 35:52 39
15 Gallipoli 34 8 9 17 27:49 33
16 Barletta 34 6 12 16 30:45 30
17 Bitonto 34 7 9 18 22:45 30
18 Santa Maria Cilento 34 5 10 19 22:55 25
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 (Play Out)