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Casertana vs Aprilia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G 2022/2023
Casertana Logo

Casertana

3 - 4
FT
Aprilia Logo

Aprilia

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Capuano E.
33' Event
Manzo S.
39' Event
Bollino M.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aprilia in this Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aprilia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Casertana
30%
Draws
29%
Aprilia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Casertana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Casertana have won more games recently than Aprilia.
  • Model gives Casertana a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Aprilia have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Casertana Clean Sheet 20%
Aprilia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casertana Aprilia
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 17 7
Draws 11 10
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.45 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Aprilia vs Casertana
4:1
Dec 18, 2022 Serie D - Group G
Casertana vs Aprilia
3:4
Mar 2, 2014 Lega Pro C2/B
Aprilia vs Casertana
2:1
Oct 27, 2013 Lega Pro C2/B
Casertana vs Aprilia
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Casertana Compare

Top Goalscorer Manzo S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferrari N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Aprilia Compare

Top Goalscorer Capuano E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bordi F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casertana 42 / 100
Aprilia 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casertana Aprilia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Casertana found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (40 games).

Aprilia let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Casertana went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Casertana VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Casertana

(Home)
03 Oct
Cavese
2 : 0
Casertana
27 Sept
Casertana
1 : 2
Catania
19 Sept
Audace Cerignola
0 : 0
Casertana
15 Sept
Casertana
1 : 0
Altamura
12 Sept
Inter U23
2 : 3
Casertana
Page 1 of 8

Aprilia

(Away)
07 May
Vis Artena
2 : 2
Aprilia
30 Apr
Aprilia
4 : 1
Casertana
23 Apr
Pomezia
1 : 0
Aprilia
16 Apr
Aprilia
1 : 3
Arzachena
06 Apr
Real Monterotondo
2 : 2
Aprilia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sorrento 34 21 7 6 53:28 70
2 Paganese 34 19 11 4 56:29 68
3 Casertana 34 17 7 10 57:40 58
4 Arzachena 34 17 6 11 51:40 57
5 Lupa Frascati 34 13 11 10 44:29 50
6 Palmese 1914 34 13 10 11 50:44 49
7 Cassino 34 13 8 13 42:45 47
8 Real Monterotondo 34 12 9 13 51:55 45
9 Sarrabus Ogliastra 34 12 7 15 51:54 43
10 Tivoli Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:39 41
11 Vis Artena 34 9 14 11 24:28 41
12 Portici 1906 34 9 13 12 45:49 40
13 Angri 34 10 9 15 39:51 39
14 Atletico Uri 34 10 9 15 45:62 39
15 Ilvamaddalena 34 8 14 12 30:39 38
16 Pomezia 34 8 11 15 40:58 35
17 SS Nola 1925 34 8 11 15 44:55 35
18 Aprilia 34 8 10 16 34:47 34
Promotion - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Out)