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Castanese vs Sanremese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Maglione R.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 game between Castanese and Sanremese finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sanremese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Castanese
35%
Draws
52%
Sanremese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sanremese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sanremese come out ahead of Castanese on wins alone.
  • 52% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Castanese Clean Sheet 19%
Sanremese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castanese Sanremese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 14
Draws 11 8
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.47 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 29, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Castanese vs Sanremese
0:1
Sep 27, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Sanremese vs Castanese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castanese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Sanremese Compare

Top Goalscorer Maglione R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castanese 36 / 100
Sanremese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castanese Sanremese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sanremese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castanese found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Defensive concern: Sanremese conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Castanese remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sanremese
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castanese

(Home)
14 May
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Castanese
07 May
Ligorna
2 : 1
Castanese
30 Apr
Castanese
1 : 1
Stresa Vergante
23 Apr
Vado
2 : 0
Castanese
16 Apr
Castanese
3 : 3
AC Chieri
Page 1 of 6

Sanremese

(Away)
20 Sept
Sanremese
2 : 2
Saluzzo
16 Sept
Chisola
1 : 0
Sanremese
12 Sept
Sanremese
1 : 0
Celle Varazze
06 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 2
Sanremese
13 Aug
Reggina
1 : 2
Sanremese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)