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Castanhal vs Capitao Poco

Brazil Brazil

Copa Grao Para 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Rocha Rodrigo
50' Event
Raposo R.
55' Event
Vidal G.

AI Match Summary

Castanhal in this Copa Grao Para 2025 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Castanhal
15%
Draws
57%
Capitao Poco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capitao Poco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Capitao Poco lately — more wins on the board than Castanhal.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Capitao Poco taking it.
  • Capitao Poco arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Capitao Poco, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 20%
Capitao Poco Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castanhal Capitao Poco
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.03 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.2 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Copa Grao Para
Castanhal vs Capitao Poco
0:1
Feb 19, 2026 Paraense
Capitao Poco vs Castanhal
0:1
Feb 15, 2026 Paraense
Capitao Poco vs Castanhal
2:0
Apr 2, 2025 Copa Grao Para
Castanhal vs Capitao Poco
3:1
Jan 29, 2025 Paraense
Capitao Poco vs Castanhal
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castanhal Compare

Top Goalscorer Raposo R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vidal G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Capitao Poco Compare

Top Goalscorer Rocha Rodrigo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castanhal 20 / 100
Capitao Poco 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castanhal Capitao Poco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Capitao Poco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castanhal's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Capitao Poco has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Castanhal stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castanhal VS Capitao Poco
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castanhal

(Home)
11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4
Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0
Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1
Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Castanhal
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Capitao Poco

(Away)
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Cameta
1 : 2
Capitao Poco
22 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 1
Tuna Luso
19 Feb
Capitao Poco
0 : 1
Castanhal
15 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 0
Castanhal
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Tuna Luso -
TBD -
Castanhal 3
Capitao Poco 1
Aguia De Maraba -
TBD -
Bragantino PA 4
Santa Rosa 1
Semi-finals
Tuna Luso 2
Castanhal 1
Aguia De Maraba 3
Bragantino PA 2
Final
Tuna Luso 1
Aguia De Maraba 2