Sport Picks
Match Events
45'
45'
Gallo M.
(Penalty)
46'
46'
Gallo M.
75'
75'
Ciattaglia D.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Castelfidardo and Maceratese finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
16%
30%
54%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maceratese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Maceratese carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Maceratese's way, sitting at 80%.
- Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Maceratese have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Castelfidardo Clean Sheet 17%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castelfidardo | Maceratese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 6 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 19 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.24 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Maceratese
2:2
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Castelfidardo
2:0
Apr 12, 2015 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Maceratese
0:2
Nov 30, 2014 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Castelfidardo
4:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castelfidardo Compare
Top Goalscorer Gallo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.62
Maceratese Compare
Top Goalscorer Ciattaglia D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ciabuschi J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castelfidardo 12 / 100
Maceratese 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castelfidardo Maceratese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Maceratese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Castelfidardo scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Maceratese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Castelfidardo has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Castelfidardo VS Maceratese
0.86 Goals Scored 1
1.86 Goals Conceded 1.63
71% Over 1.5 88%
57% Over 2.5 63%
57% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Castelfidardo
(Home) 03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2 AS Sora
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0 Castelfidardo
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2 AS Sora
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2 Maceratese
22 Mar
Castelfidardo
1 : 0 Calcio Chieti
15 Mar
Castelfidardo
2 : 1 Recanatese
Page 1 of 3
Maceratese
(Away) 04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1 Santegidiese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2 Maceratese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1 Ancona
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2 Maceratese
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1 Maceratese
03 May
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0 Maceratese
19 Apr
Unipomezia
3 : 0 Maceratese
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
