Sport Picks
Match Events
45'
45'
Gallo M.
(Penalty)
46'
46'
Gallo M.
75'
75'
Ciattaglia D.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Castelfidardo and Maceratese finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
35%
46%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maceratese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Maceratese carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Maceratese's way, sitting at 70%.
- Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Maceratese have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Castelfidardo Clean Sheet 17%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castelfidardo | Maceratese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 6 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 19 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Maceratese
2:2
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Castelfidardo
2:0
Apr 12, 2015 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Maceratese
0:2
Nov 30, 2014 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Castelfidardo
4:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castelfidardo Compare
Top Goalscorer Gallo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Maceratese Compare
Top Goalscorer Ciattaglia D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ciabuschi J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castelfidardo 15 / 100
Maceratese 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castelfidardo Maceratese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Maceratese let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
Castelfidardo's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Castelfidardo has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Castelfidardo VS Maceratese
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Castelfidardo
(Home) 03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2 AS Sora
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0 Castelfidardo
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2 AS Sora
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2 Maceratese
22 Mar
Castelfidardo
1 : 0 Calcio Chieti
15 Mar
Castelfidardo
2 : 1 Recanatese
Page 1 of 3
Maceratese
(Away) 03 May
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0 Maceratese
26 Apr
Maceratese
1 : 1 Giulianova
19 Apr
Unipomezia
3 : 0 Maceratese
12 Apr
Maceratese
2 : 1 Recanatese
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0 Maceratese
19 Apr
Unipomezia
3 : 0 Maceratese
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2 Maceratese
22 Mar
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 0 Maceratese
01 Mar
Ancona
4 : 0 Maceratese
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
