Sport Picks
Match Events
28'
28'
Chessa M.
(Penalty)
34'
34'
Pelamatti M.
36'
36'
Coulibaly B.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 game between Castellanzese and Arconatese finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Castellanzese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Castellanzese come out ahead of Arconatese on wins alone.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on Castellanzese taking it.
- Regular Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%
Arconatese Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castellanzese | Arconatese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 5 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 14 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.27 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 9, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Arconatese
2:2
Nov 3, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Arconatese vs Castellanzese
1:2
Mar 3, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Arconatese vs Castellanzese
1:2
Oct 29, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Arconatese
1:0
May 8, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Arconatese vs Castellanzese
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castellanzese Compare
Top Goalscorer Chessa M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67
Arconatese Compare
Top Goalscorer Pelamatti M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Coulibaly B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.6
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castellanzese 77 / 100
Arconatese 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castellanzese Arconatese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arconatese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.
Castellanzese's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Away concern: Arconatese has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Castellanzese VS Arconatese
1 Goals Scored 0.67
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.67
63% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 33%
Recent Form & Match History
Castellanzese
(Home) 16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1 Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0 Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1 US Pontedera
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2 Varesina
03 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1 Castellanzese
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1 Oltrepo
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1 US Pontedera
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2 Varesina
26 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 3 AC Milan U23
12 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 0 AC Leon
Page 1 of 4
Arconatese
(Away) 16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0 Arconatese
12 Sept
Arconatese
1 : 1 Correggese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1 Arconatese
13 Aug
Arconatese
2 : 2 AC Leon
04 May
Breno
4 : 1 Arconatese
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0 Arconatese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1 Arconatese
04 May
Breno
4 : 1 Arconatese
17 Apr
Sangiuliano City
3 : 0 Arconatese
06 Apr
Pro Palazzolo
3 : 0 Arconatese
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ospitaletto | 38 | 21 | 12 | 5 | 66:34 | 75 |
| 2 | Pro Palazzolo | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 69:36 | 70 |
| 3 | Desenzano Calvina | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 51:29 | 69 |
| 4 | USD Casatese | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 58:34 | 68 |
| 5 | Folgore Caratese | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 66:42 | 68 |
| 6 | Varesina | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 61:44 | 64 |
| 7 | Chievo | 38 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 49:37 | 57 |
| 8 | Pro Sesto | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 45:43 | 52 |
| 9 | Club Milano | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 44:50 | 49 |
| 10 | Sant'Angelo | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 41:41 | 48 |
| 11 | Sondrio | 38 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 39:51 | 47 |
| 12 | Breno | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 42:53 | 47 |
| 13 | Castellanzese | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 43:53 | 46 |
| 14 | Vigasio | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39:41 | 45 |
| 15 | Sangiuliano City | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39:46 | 45 |
| 16 | Crema | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:57 | 44 |
| 17 | Magenta | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 33:53 | 36 |
| 18 | Fanfulla | 38 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 28:57 | 32 |
| 19 | Ciliverghe Mazzano | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 41:70 | 31 |
| 20 | Arconatese | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 33:64 | 31 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
