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Castellanzese vs Casale

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Ibe C.
10' Event
Mandelli M.
23' Event
Lanza L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 game between Castellanzese and Casale finished 7-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castellanzese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Castellanzese
20%
Draws
15%
Casale
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castellanzese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Castellanzese come out ahead of Casale on wins alone.
  • Castellanzese are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 20%
Casale Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellanzese Casale
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 1
Draws 7 5
Losses 13 24
Goals Scored 1.4 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.2 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 8, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Castellanzese vs Casale
7:1
Sep 4, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Castellanzese
2:2
Feb 28, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Castellanzese
1:2
Nov 29, 2020 Serie D - Group A
Castellanzese vs Casale
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellanzese Compare

Top Goalscorer Ibe C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mandelli M.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Casale Compare

Top Goalscorer Lanza L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellanzese 85 / 100
Casale 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellanzese Casale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Casale's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Attacking prowess: Castellanzese scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Castellanzese has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Castellanzese VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellanzese

(Home)
27 Sept
Castellanzese
4 : 0
Crema
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
Page 1 of 6

Casale

(Away)
07 May
Casale
1 : 1
Asti Calcio
30 Apr
Chisola
2 : 1
Casale
23 Apr
Casale
2 : 2
Pinerolo
15 Apr
Sanremese
1 : 0
Casale
06 Apr
Casale
0 : 2
Castanese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)