Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castellanzese vs Ciserano-Bergamo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Rusconi L.
37' Event
Chessa M.
43' Event
De Felice A.

AI Match Summary

Castellanzese in this Serie D - Group B matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castellanzese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Castellanzese
39%
Draws
30%
Ciserano-Bergamo
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Ciserano-Bergamo have won more games recently than Castellanzese.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 23%
Ciserano-Bergamo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellanzese Ciserano-Bergamo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 8 10
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.88 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Ciserano-Bergamo vs Castellanzese
1:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Ciserano-Bergamo
3:1
Jan 17, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Ciserano-Bergamo
2:0
Sep 20, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Ciserano-Bergamo vs Castellanzese
2:1
Feb 13, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Ciserano-Bergamo vs Castellanzese
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellanzese Compare

Top Goalscorer Rusconi L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chessa M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Ciserano-Bergamo Compare

Top Goalscorer De Felice A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellanzese 33 / 100
Ciserano-Bergamo 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellanzese Ciserano-Bergamo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CIS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Castellanzese found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Ciserano-Bergamo let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Castellanzese remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castellanzese VS Ciserano-Bergamo
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellanzese

(Home)
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
03 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1
Castellanzese
26 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 3
AC Milan U23
19 Apr
Chievo
2 : 2
Castellanzese
12 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 0
AC Leon
Page 1 of 6

Ciserano-Bergamo

(Away)
03 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1
Castellanzese
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
19 Apr
Ciserano-Bergamo
6 : 1
Vogherese
12 Apr
Villa Valle
1 : 1
Ciserano-Bergamo
02 Apr
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 2
Varesina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Folgore Caratese341911458:2768
2USD Casatese341613549:2861
3Chievo341861052:4360
4AC Milan U23341681062:3756
5AC Leon341411944:3453
6Brusaporto341561341:3851
7Oltrepo341581138:3650
8Scanzorosciate341114941:3347
9Villa Valle341381343:4647
10Ciserano-Bergamo3411131033:3146
11Caldiero Terme341015950:4045
12Real Calepina341191442:4742
13Castellanzese3410111341:3941
14Breno349111439:5138
15Pavia349101536:4737
16Varesina347151238:4436
17Sondrio34871937:6431
18Vogherese34282421:80-17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)