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Castellanzese vs Crema - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Boccadamo S.
8' Event
Matella T.
43' Event
Valmori M.

AI Match Summary

Castellanzese in this Serie D - Group D matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castellanzese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Castellanzese
15%
Draws
21%
Crema
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castellanzese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castellanzese lately — more wins on the board than Crema.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Castellanzese taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%
Crema Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellanzese Crema
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 6
Draws 6 8
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.27 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Castellanzese vs Crema
4:0
Jan 15, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Crema
1:1
Sep 18, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Crema vs Castellanzese
0:1
Mar 28, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Crema vs Castellanzese
0:2
Nov 19, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Crema
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellanzese Compare

Top Goalscorer Boccadamo S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matella T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Crema Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellanzese 95 / 100
Crema 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellanzese Crema

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castellanzese found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Crema's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Castellanzese remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castellanzese VS Crema
1.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellanzese

(Home)
04 Oct
Sant'Angelo
1 : 2
Castellanzese
27 Sept
Castellanzese
4 : 0
Crema
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
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Crema

(Away)
04 Oct
Crema
3 : 2
Varese FC
27 Sept
Castellanzese
4 : 0
Crema
20 Sept
Crema
0 : 3
Pro Sesto
16 Sept
Pro Patria
2 : 0
Crema
13 Sept
Crema
1 : 3
Pistoiese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)