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Castellanzese vs Oltrepo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Randisi A.

AI Match Summary

Oltrepo in this Serie D - Group D matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Oltrepo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Castellanzese
15%
Draws
21%
Oltrepo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castellanzese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Oltrepo lately — more wins on the board than Castellanzese.
  • Win probability leans Castellanzese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Oltrepo here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%
Oltrepo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellanzese Oltrepo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 6 4
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.28 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Castellanzese vs Oltrepo
0:1
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Oltrepo vs Castellanzese
2:0
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Oltrepo
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellanzese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Oltrepo Compare

Top Goalscorer Randisi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellanzese 95 / 100
Oltrepo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellanzese Oltrepo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castellanzese's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Oltrepo conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Castellanzese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castellanzese VS Oltrepo
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellanzese

(Home)
04 Oct
Sant'Angelo
1 : 2
Castellanzese
27 Sept
Castellanzese
4 : 0
Crema
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
Page 1 of 6

Oltrepo

(Away)
04 Oct
Oltrepo
1 : 2
Lentigione
27 Sept
Pro Sesto
6 : 1
Oltrepo
20 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 1
Tropical Coriano
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Pavia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)