Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group A 2017/2018

Varesina

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Castellazzo play Varesina in the Serie D - Group A 2017/2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Castellazzo averaged 0.9 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. Varesina averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. In past meetings, Castellazzo won 0, Varesina won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 11, 2018 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Castellazzo and 0.99 for Varesina. This points to a Varesina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%

Castellazzo

31%

Draws

53%

Varesina

Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Varesina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence

Castellazzo picked up more points recently compared to Varesina.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 0.99 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%

Castellazzo Clean Sheet 23%

Varesina Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Castellazzo	Varesina
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	3	10
Draws	7	11
Losses	20	10
Goals Scored	0.9	1.23
Goals Conceded	2.13	1.16

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2018 Serie D - Group A

Castellazzo vs Varesina

Possession: 53% - 49% Cards: 3 - 3

0:2

Oct 8, 2017 Serie D - Group A

Varesina vs Castellazzo

Possession: 43% - 54% Cards: 1 - 0

2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellazzo 19 / 100

Varesina 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Castellazzo Varesina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varesina Win (2)

Secondary Pick Varesina & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +100%

12.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Castellazzo attacking → ← attacking Varesina

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castellazzo scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Varesina let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Castellazzo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Varesina lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

16 Points in last 5 41

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gozzano	38	25	7	6	68:25	82
2	Como	38	25	6	7	58:27	81
3	Caronnese	38	21	11	6	62:30	74
4	AC Chieri	38	19	14	5	64:37	71
5	Pro Sesto	38	20	7	11	69:43	67
6	Folgore Caratese	38	14	14	10	45:39	56
7	Inveruno	38	14	10	14	44:48	52
8	Borgosesia Calcio	38	14	9	15	40:39	51
9	Arconatese	38	14	8	16	37:46	50
10	Bra	38	13	10	15	45:51	49
11	Pavia	38	12	11	15	53:58	47
12	Borgaro	38	11	13	14	35:44	46
13	Olginatese	38	9	18	11	37:44	45
14	Seregno Calcio	38	10	14	14	45:54	44
15	OltrepoVoghera	38	9	16	13	34:47	43
16	Casale	38	10	12	16	41:48	42
17	Varesina	38	10	11	17	33:45	41
18	Varese	38	8	16	14	47:49	40
19	Calcio Derthona	38	5	11	22	25:62	26
20	Castellazzo	38	3	10	25	32:78	19