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Stadium Background

Castellon vs Almeria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

LaLiga2 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Castalia, Castellón de la Plana
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Morcillo J.
24'
Arribas S.
33'
de la Fuente M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this LaLiga2 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Castellon
15%
Draws
46%
Almeria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Almeria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Castellon haven't matched Almeria's recent run of results.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Castellon taking it.
  • Almeria arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Castellon, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Castellon Clean Sheet 20%
Almeria Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellon Almeria
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 17
Draws 9 3
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 1.69 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2026 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Castellon
3:2
Jun 6, 2026 LaLiga2
Castellon vs Almeria
1:1
Apr 2, 2026 LaLiga2
Castellon vs Almeria
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Castellon
1:0
Apr 18, 2025 LaLiga2
Castellon vs Almeria
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellon Compare

Top Goalscorer Brignani F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Almeria Compare

Top Goalscorer Arribas S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellon 49 / 100
Almeria 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellon Almeria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castellon found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

Recent resilience: Castellon stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Almeria let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Castellon VS Almeria
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellon

(Home)
04 Oct
Castellon
1 : 1
AD Ceuta
28 Sept
Leganes
0 : 2
Castellon
19 Sept
Castellon
5 : 0
Tenerife
12 Sept
Girona
1 : 2
Castellon
06 Sept
Castellon
2 : 0
Albacete
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Almeria

(Away)
03 Oct
Almeria
2 : 1
Burgos CF
27 Sept
Mallorca
0 : 1
Almeria
20 Sept
Almeria
2 : 0
Celta Vigo B
12 Sept
Cordoba
0 : 2
Almeria
06 Sept
Almeria
3 : 2
Cadiz
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Almeria 4
Castellon 3
Malaga 2
Las Palmas 1
Final
Almeria 1
Malaga 2