Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castelo FC vs Estrela do Norte

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Capixaba 2014
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Castelo FC in this Campeonato Capixaba 2014 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castelo FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Castelo FC
33%
Draws
27%
Estrela do Norte
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Castelo FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Estrela do Norte have won more games recently than Castelo FC.
  • Win probability leans Castelo FC's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Campeonato Capixaba 2014 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Castelo FC Clean Sheet 15%
Estrela do Norte Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castelo FC Estrela do Norte
Matches Played 34 38
Wins 10 17
Draws 11 6
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 2.13 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2019 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Castelo FC
3:0
Mar 18, 2015 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Castelo FC
1:0
Feb 4, 2015 Capixaba
Castelo FC vs Estrela do Norte
0:0
Apr 20, 2014 Capixaba
Castelo FC vs Estrela do Norte
2:0
Feb 15, 2014 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Castelo FC
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castelo FC 39 / 100
Estrela do Norte 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castelo FC Estrela do Norte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Castelo FC scored in 74% of their last 34 outings.

Estrela do Norte's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 38 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Castelo FC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Castelo FC VS Estrela do Norte
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Castelo FC

(Home)
18 Nov
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Castelo FC
13 Nov
Castelo FC
0 : 1
Vilavelhense
26 Oct
Capixaba SC
3 : 2
Castelo FC
18 Oct
Castelo FC
3 : 0
Sport-ES
15 Oct
GEL
1 : 7
Castelo FC
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Estrela do Norte

(Away)
12 Jul
Rive
0 : 2
Estrela do Norte
04 Oct
Estrela do Norte
0 : 1
Forte
28 Sept
Forte
2 : 1
Estrela do Norte
20 Sept
GEL
0 : 5
Estrela do Norte
15 Sept
Estrela do Norte
0 : 1
Pinheiros
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1SAO Mateus1686226:1130
2Linhares Futebol Clube1693428:1730
3Estrela do Norte1685322:1329
4Castelo FC1676328:2027
5Vitoria ES1664626:2322
6Real Noroeste1656520:1921
7Desportiva Ferroviaria1663721:2221
8Colatina SE1634916:3313
9Conilon16111410:394
Promotion - Campeonato Capixaba 2014 (Play Offs)