Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castelvetro vs Mezzolara

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mezzolara in this Serie D - Group D 2017/2018 tie, finishing 0-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Castelvetro
15%
Draws
34%
Mezzolara
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castelvetro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castelvetro lately — more wins on the board than Mezzolara.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Castelvetro have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Mezzolara, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Castelvetro Clean Sheet 20%
Mezzolara Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castelvetro Mezzolara
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 4
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 19
Goals Scored 1.23 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2018 Serie D - Group D
Castelvetro vs Mezzolara
0:2
Apr 22, 2018 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs Castelvetro
1:3
Dec 2, 2017 Serie D - Group D
Castelvetro vs Mezzolara
0:3
Mar 19, 2017 Serie D - Group D
Castelvetro vs Mezzolara
3:1
Nov 6, 2016 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs Castelvetro
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castelvetro 36 / 100
Mezzolara 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castelvetro Mezzolara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mezzolara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Castelvetro scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Mezzolara let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Away concern: Mezzolara has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Mezzolara
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Castelvetro

(Home)
21 Jul
Modena
9 : 0
Castelvetro
20 May
Castelvetro
0 : 2
Mezzolara
06 May
Romagna Centro
2 : 0
Castelvetro
29 Apr
Castelvetro
2 : 0
Sporting Trestina
22 Apr
Mezzolara
1 : 3
Castelvetro
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Mezzolara

(Away)
12 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Mezzolara
06 Sept
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Rondinella
05 May
Mezzolara
1 : 2
SCD Progresso
28 Apr
Forli FC
2 : 0
Mezzolara
21 Apr
Mezzolara
3 : 1
Sammaurese
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Castelvetro 0
Mezzolara 2