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Castilleja CF vs Conil

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026
Castilleja CF Logo

Castilleja CF

3 - 1
FT
Conil Logo

Conil

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Matos D.
28' Event
Romero S.
44' Event
Troncoso Espinar M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 game between Castilleja CF and Conil finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castilleja CF.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Castilleja CF
15%
Draws
59%
Conil
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Conil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Conil come out ahead of Castilleja CF on wins alone.
  • Model gives Castilleja CF a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Castilleja CF Clean Sheet 17%
Conil Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castilleja CF Conil
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 6 13
Draws 7 6
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 0.93 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Castilleja CF vs Conil
3:1
Dec 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Conil vs Castilleja CF
2:2
May 23, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Castilleja CF vs Conil
0:0
Apr 18, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Conil vs Castilleja CF
2:1
Mar 6, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Conil vs Castilleja CF
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castilleja CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Matos D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Troncoso Espinar M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Conil Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castilleja CF 36 / 100
Conil 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castilleja CF Conil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Conil let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Castilleja CF scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Castilleja CF has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Castilleja CF VS Conil
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Castilleja CF

(Home)
06 May
Castilleja CF
0 : 2
Coria C.F.
03 May
AD Ceuta B
2 : 2
Castilleja CF
26 Apr
Castilleja CF
0 : 1
Cordoba B
19 Apr
Chiclana
1 : 0
Castilleja CF
12 Apr
Castilleja CF
3 : 1
Conil
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Conil

(Away)
13 Sept
CD Utrera
2 : 0
Conil
09 Sept
Melilla
0 : 1
Conil
05 Sept
Conil
1 : 0
Pozoblanco
10 May
Linense
2 : 0
Conil
03 May
Conil
3 : 2
Atl. Onubense (Huelva B)
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ciudad de Lucena 34 22 7 5 69:25 73
2 Dos Hermanas 34 18 6 10 69:39 60
3 Atletico Central 34 15 10 9 36:29 55
4 Bollullos 34 14 11 9 43:35 53
5 AD Ceuta B 34 14 10 10 38:38 52
6 Linense 34 13 13 8 45:32 52
7 Cadiz B 34 14 10 10 50:38 52
8 Conil 34 15 7 12 43:44 52
9 Cordoba B 34 12 8 14 44:44 44
10 CD Utrera 34 12 8 14 40:47 44
11 Pozoblanco 34 10 13 11 39:44 43
12 Chiclana 34 10 13 11 39:45 43
13 San Roque de Lepe 34 10 13 11 39:39 43
14 Atl. Onubense (Huelva B) 34 10 10 14 36:43 40
15 Tomares UD 34 10 9 15 34:46 39
16 Sevilla C 34 10 8 16 34:41 38
17 Castilleja CF 34 6 9 19 28:62 27
18 Coria C.F. 34 4 9 21 24:59 21
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 (Play Offs)