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Castilleja CF vs Conil

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Matos D.
28' Event
Romero S.
44' Event
Troncoso Espinar M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 10 game between Castilleja CF and Conil finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castilleja CF.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Castilleja CF
39%
Draws
30%
Conil
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Conil come out ahead of Castilleja CF on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 10 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Castilleja CF Clean Sheet 10%
Conil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castilleja CF Conil
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 15
Draws 7 6
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 2.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Castilleja CF vs Conil
3:1
Dec 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Conil vs Castilleja CF
2:2
May 23, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Castilleja CF vs Conil
0:0
Apr 18, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Conil vs Castilleja CF
2:1
Mar 6, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Conil vs Castilleja CF
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castilleja CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Matos D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Troncoso Espinar M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Conil Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castilleja CF 30 / 100
Conil 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castilleja CF Conil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Conil let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Castilleja CF scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Castilleja CF has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Castilleja CF VS Conil
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
2.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Castilleja CF

(Home)
06 May
Castilleja CF
0 : 2
Coria C.F.
03 May
AD Ceuta B
2 : 2
Castilleja CF
26 Apr
Castilleja CF
0 : 1
Cordoba B
19 Apr
Chiclana
1 : 0
Castilleja CF
12 Apr
Castilleja CF
3 : 1
Conil
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Conil

(Away)
10 May
Linense
2 : 0
Conil
03 May
Conil
3 : 2
Atl. Onubense (Huelva B)
26 Apr
Pozoblanco
0 : 1
Conil
19 Apr
Conil
1 : 0
San Roque de Lepe
12 Apr
Castilleja CF
3 : 1
Conil
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ciudad de Lucena34227569:2573
2Dos Hermanas341861069:3960
3Atletico Central341510936:2955
4Bollullos341411943:3553
5AD Ceuta B3414101038:3852
6Linense341313845:3252
7Cadiz B3414101050:3852
8Conil341571243:4452
9Cordoba B341281444:4444
10CD Utrera341281440:4744
11Pozoblanco3410131139:4443
12Chiclana3410131139:4543
13San Roque de Lepe3410131139:3943
14Atl. Onubense (Huelva B)3410101436:4340
15Tomares UD341091534:4639
16Sevilla C341081634:4138
17Castilleja CF34691928:6227
18Coria C.F.34492124:5921
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 10 (Play Offs)