Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castlebar Celtic vs North End United

Ireland Ireland

FAI Cup
Sat, May 16, 2026
3 - 0
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 3-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Castlebar Celtic have averaged 1.5 scored and 2.42 conceded recently, against North End United's 1.17 scored and 2 conceded. Past meetings favor Castlebar Celtic slightly — 2-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 16, 2026, ending 3:0. xG projections (1.69 - 1.52) back Castlebar Celtic to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Castlebar Celtic
15%
Draws
21%
North End United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castlebar Celtic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castlebar Celtic lately — more wins on the board than North End United.
  • Model gives Castlebar Celtic a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Castlebar Celtic have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Castlebar Celtic, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Castlebar Celtic Clean Sheet 15%
North End United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castlebar Celtic North End United
Matches Played 12 6
Wins 5 2
Draws 0 0
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 1.5 1.17
Goals Conceded 2.42 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 FAI Cup
Castlebar Celtic vs North End United
3:0
May 11, 2025 FAI Cup
North End United vs Castlebar Celtic
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castlebar Celtic 41 / 100
North End United 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castlebar Celtic North End United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Castlebar Celtic scored in 67% of their last 12 outings.

North End United let in goals in 67% of their last 6 matches.

Recent resilience: Castlebar Celtic stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castlebar Celtic VS North End United
1.38 Goals Scored 1.17
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 83%
63% Over 2.5 67%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Castlebar Celtic

(Home)
15 Aug
Dundalk
8 : 0
Castlebar Celtic
18 Jul
Douglas Hall
0 : 1
Castlebar Celtic
16 May
Castlebar Celtic
3 : 0
North End United
20 Jul
Castlebar Celtic
3 : 6
Longford
11 May
North End United
1 : 4
Castlebar Celtic
Page 1 of 3

North End United

(Away)
16 May
Castlebar Celtic
3 : 0
North End United
11 May
North End United
1 : 4
Castlebar Celtic
11 Aug
North End United
0 : 4
Galway United
22 Apr
North End United
2 : 0
Cherry Orchard
29 May
Galway United
1 : 0
North End United
Page 1 of 2

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
St. Patricks -
TBD -
TBD -
Wexford -
Shamrock Rovers -
TBD -
TBD -
Cork City -
Liffey Wanderers 1
Ringmahon Rangers 2
TBD -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 2
Leicester Celtic AFC 0
TBD -
Longford -
Waterford -
TBD -
TBD -
Cobh Ramblers -
Athlone -
TBD -
Midleton 2
Mayfield Utd 0
St. Michaels 1
Janesboro 3
TBD -
Sligo Rovers -
Kerry -
TBD -
TBD -
Shelbourne -
Bangor Celtic 4
River Valley Rangers 1
College Corinthians 2
Killester Donnycarney 1
Drogheda -
TBD -
Lucan Utd 5
University College Cork 2
Galway United -
TBD -
Crumlin Utd 4
Salthill 0
Finn Harps -
TBD -
TBD -
Bray -
Treaty United -
TBD -
TBD -
UC Dublin -
Derry City -
TBD -
Fairview Rangers 0
Tolka 3
Wayside Celtic 3
St Mochta's 4
TBD -
Dundalk -
Douglas Hall 1
Fanad United 0
Castlebar Celtic 3
North End United 0
1/16-finals
St. Patricks 2
Wexford 1
Shamrock Rovers 4
Cork City 1
Ringmahon Rangers -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 0
Longford 8
Waterford 2
Cobh Ramblers 1
Athlone 3
Midleton 0
Janesboro 0
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 3
Shelbourne 2
Bangor Celtic 4
College Corinthians 5
Drogheda 4
Lucan Utd 0
Galway United 4
Crumlin Utd 0
Finn Harps 0
Bray 1
Treaty United 1
UC Dublin 2
Derry City 3
Tolka 0
St Mochta's 1
Dundalk 3
Douglas Hall 0
Castlebar Celtic 1
1/8-finals
St. Patricks 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
Bohemians 4
Longford 0
Waterford 2
Athlone 1
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 0
College Corinthians 0
Drogheda 3
Galway United 2
Bray 1
UC Dublin 1
Derry City 2
Dundalk 8
Castlebar Celtic 0
Quarter-finals
St. Patricks 1
Bohemians 2
Waterford 3
Sligo Rovers 0
Drogheda 1
Galway United 2
Derry City 4
Dundalk 2
Semi-finals
Bohemians -
Waterford -
Galway United -
Derry City -
Final
TBD -
TBD -