Sport Picks
Match Events
5'
5'
Diez J.
48'
48'
Matabuena A.
81'
81'
Diaz B.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Castro
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Castro lately — more wins on the board than Barreda Balompie.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Castro Clean Sheet 20%
Barreda Balompie Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castro | Barreda Balompie |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 37 | 31 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.32 | 1.58 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.19 | 1.84 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.23 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Barreda Balompie
2:2
Jan 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Barreda Balompie vs Castro
0:0
Feb 19, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Barreda Balompie vs Castro
0:2
Oct 23, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Barreda Balompie
2:1
Mar 13, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Barreda Balompie
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castro Compare
Top Goalscorer Diez J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Franco Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61
Barreda Balompie Compare
Top Goalscorer Matabuena A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castro 31 / 100
Barreda Balompie 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castro Barreda Balompie
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Castro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Barreda Balompie let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.
Attacking prowess: Castro scored in 68% of their last 37 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Castro has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Castro VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Castro
(Home) 13 Sept
Castro
2 : 0 Solares
06 Sept
Selaya
0 : 0 Castro
09 May
Castro
0 : 2 CD Tropezon
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0 Castro
26 Apr
Castro
2 : 3 Gimnastic de Torrelavega
Page 1 of 8
13 Sept
Castro
2 : 0 Solares
09 May
Castro
0 : 2 CD Tropezon
26 Apr
Castro
2 : 3 Gimnastic de Torrelavega
12 Apr
Castro
0 : 1 Guarnizo
29 Mar
Castro
3 : 1 Selaya
Page 1 of 4
Barreda Balompie
(Away) 10 May
Castro
2 : 2 Barreda Balompie
04 May
Barreda Balompie
1 : 0 CD Siete Villas
26 Apr
Atletico Albericia
2 : 1 Barreda Balompie
17 Apr
Barreda Balompie
0 : 1 Guarnizo
12 Apr
Vimenor
5 : 4 Barreda Balompie
Page 1 of 7
10 May
Castro
2 : 2 Barreda Balompie
26 Apr
Atletico Albericia
2 : 1 Barreda Balompie
12 Apr
Vimenor
5 : 4 Barreda Balompie
30 Mar
CD Tropezon
0 : 0 Barreda Balompie
22 Mar
CD Monte
3 : 3 Barreda Balompie
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Samano | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 52:22 | 70 |
| 2 | CD Tropezon | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 58:30 | 67 |
| 3 | Atletico Albericia | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 64:39 | 64 |
| 4 | Cayon CD | 34 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 61:41 | 62 |
| 5 | Castro | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 45:26 | 59 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 63:42 | 57 |
| 7 | Bezana | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 46:41 | 54 |
| 8 | Torina | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 49:44 | 50 |
| 9 | CD Barquereno | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 60:59 | 49 |
| 10 | Guarnizo | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 44:37 | 48 |
| 11 | CD Revilla | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 12 | CD Colindres | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 36:53 | 36 |
| 13 | Gama | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 34:56 | 36 |
| 14 | Atletico Mineros | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 33:58 | 35 |
| 15 | Barreda Balompie | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 49:65 | 34 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 40:59 | 33 |
| 17 | CD Siete Villas | 34 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 29:53 | 28 |
| 18 | CD Monte | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 33:64 | 20 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
