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Castro vs Selaya

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Diez J.
41' Event
Feijoo P.
54' Event
Cabieces E.

AI Match Summary

Castro in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Castro
35%
Draws
46%
Selaya
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Selaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castro lately — more wins on the board than Selaya.
  • Win probability leans Castro's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Castro Clean Sheet 13%
Selaya Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castro Selaya
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 7
Draws 7 7
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 1.03 0.81
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Selaya vs Castro
0:0
Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Selaya
3:1
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Selaya vs Castro
0:1
Apr 30, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Selaya vs Castro
1:1
Jan 9, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Selaya
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castro Compare

Top Goalscorer Diez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cabieces E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Selaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Feijoo P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castro 40 / 100
Selaya 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castro Selaya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Castro scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Selaya conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Castro went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castro VS Selaya
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Castro

(Home)
06 Sept
Selaya
0 : 0
Castro
09 May
Castro
0 : 2
CD Tropezon
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0
Castro
26 Apr
Castro
2 : 3
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
18 Apr
CD Revilla
2 : 1
Castro
Page 1 of 6

Selaya

(Away)
12 Sept
CD Tropezon
3 : 0
Selaya
06 Sept
Selaya
0 : 0
Castro
21 Aug
Selaya
0 : 3
Cayon CD
09 May
Atletico Albericia
2 : 4
Selaya
03 May
Selaya
1 : 1
CD Laredo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)